A Multi-Model Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Regime in the Czech Republic

Hanel, Martin; Vizina, Adam; Máca, Petr; Pavlásek, Jiří

doi:10.2478/v10098-012-0013-4

Cited by 44 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This is in good agreement with previously published projections (Hurkmans et al 2010;Benčoková et al 2011a;Němečková et al 2011;Hanel et al 2012). The difference at the LIT catchment, showing a rather slight improvement in some months (Figure 2), could be caused by the fact that the recent period used for comparison (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) included some very dry years (2007, 2008, and 2009) when the stream was dry for several months during summer and autumn.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…However, the results of Hanel et al (2012) based on 15 regional climate model simulations were very variable in the case of winter runoff changes, and an increase was projected only for some isolated areas in the northern part of the CR by a majority of the scenarios used. Similarly, the projected increase in winter runoff for GEOMON catchments will be more affected by shifts in snow melt than changes in precipitation distribution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most recently published studies focus on the impact of climate change on hydrological patterns in meso-or largescale catchments (e.g. Kliment & Matoušková 2006;Hurkmans et al 2010;Němečková et al 2011;Hanel et al 2012;Somorowska & Pietka 2012;Schneider et al 2013). Much less attention has been paid to the possible effects on hydrological patterns in small headwater catchments, although these areas are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change (Haigh & Křeček 2000).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

Lamačová¹,

Hruška²,

Krám³

et al. 2014

Soil Water Res.

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Lamačová A., Hruška J., Krám P., Stuchlík E., Farda A., Chuman T., Fottová D. (2014): Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments. Soil & Water Res., 9: 169-181.The aims of the present study were (i) to evaluate trends in runoff from small forested catchments of the GEOMON (GEOchemical MONitoring) network during the period 1994-2011, and (ii) to estimate the impact of anticipated climate change projected by ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model coupled to ARPEGE-Climate global circulation model and forced with IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario on flow patterns in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. There were no general patterns found indicating either significant increases or decreases in runoff on either seasonal or annual levels across the investigated catchments within 1994-2011. Annual runoff is projected to decrease by 15% (2021-2050) and 35% (2071-2100) with a significant decrease in summer months and a slight increase in winter months as a result of expected climate change as simulated by the selected climate model.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

Lamačová¹,

Hruška²,

Krám³

et al. 2014

Soil Water Res.

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“…Earlier snowmelt onset and thus decrease of minimum streamflow has been observed (Jefferson, 2011) and a further shift of snowmelt towards earlier spring is predicted (Barnett et al, 2005;Bavay et al, 2009;Hanel et al, 2012;Godsey et al, 2014;Blahusiakova and Matouskova, 2015).…”

Section: The Role Of Catchment Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments

Jeníček

Seibert

Zappa

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Winter snow accumulation obviously has an effect on the following catchment runoff. The question is, however, how long this effect lasts and how important it is compared to rainfall inputs. Here we investigate the relative importance of snow accumulation on one critical aspect of runoff, namely the summer low flow. This is especially relevant as the expected increase of air temperature might result in decreased snow storage. A decrease of snow will affect soil and groundwater storages during spring and might cause low streamflow values in the subsequent warm season. To understand these potential climate change impacts, a better evaluation of the effects of inter-annual variations in snow accumulation on summer low flow under current conditions is central. The objective in this study was (1) to quantify how long snowmelt affects runoff after melt-out and (2) to estimate the sensitivity of catchments with different elevation ranges to changes in snowpack. To find suitable predictors of summer low flow we used long time series from 14 Alpine and pre-Alpine catchments in Switzerland and computed different variables quantifying winter and spring snow conditions. In general, the results indicated that maximum winter snow water equivalent (SWE) influenced summer low flow, but could expectedly only partly explain the observed inter-annual variations. On average, a decrease of maximum SWE by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 6-9 % in catchments higher than 2000 m a.s.l. This effect was smaller in middle-and lower-elevation catchments with a decrease of minimum discharge by 2-5 % per 10 % decrease of maximum SWE. For higher-and middle-elevation catchments and years with below-average SWE maximum, the minimum discharge in July decreased to 70-90 % of its normal level. Additionally, a reduction in SWE resulted in earlier low-flow occurrence in some cases. One other important factor was the precipitation between maximum SWE and summer low flow. When only dry preceding conditions in this period were considered, the importance of maximum SWE as a predictor of low flows increased. We assessed the sensitivity of individual catchments to the change of maximum SWE using the non-parametric Theil-Sen approach as well as an elasticity index. Both sensitivity indicators increased with increasing mean catchment elevation, indicating a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow accumulation in Alpine catchments compared to lower-elevation pre-Alpine catchments.

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“…For instance, for a number of catchments in Central Europe, the projected average annual changes in water level are relatively small, despite considerable changes in seasonal distribution, even for high-impact scenarios (e.g. Hanel et al 2012Hanel et al , 2013. This suggests that the development of accumulation capa cities might be an adaptation option.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

Těpánek¹,

Zahradníček²,

Farda³

et al. 2016

Clim. Res.

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The end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century in the Czech Republic were characterized by frequent extreme water cycle fluctuations, i.e. the occurrence of increased incidences of flood and drought events. Drought occurs irregularly in the Czech Republic during periods with low precipitation amounts. The most noteworthy droughts with significant impact, especially to agriculture, occurred in the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2015. A significant increase in frequency and length of drought periods was detected in future climate projections based on the latest model outputs, such as from the Euro-CORDEX 0.11° resolutions for the European area. For these model experiments, the following greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were used: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (milder scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario). Since the climate models suffer from potentially severe biases, it is necessary to statistically correct their outputs. For this purpose, a suitable reference dataset was prepared, based on quality-controlled, homogenized and gap-filled station time series. The correction method applied was based on variable correction using individual percentiles. From the corrected model outputs, selected extreme indexes with respect to drought analysis were calculated. From the results, it follows that we can expect both an increase in air temperature and in precipitation (with increased amounts per event), as well as an increase in other extremes with the capability of inducing drought (number of tropical days, heat waves, etc.).

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A Multi-Model Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Regime in the Czech Republic

Cited by 44 publications

References 11 publications

Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments

Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

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