A Multi-Objective Decision Model for Water Pollution Load Allocation under Uncertainty

Abstract

In order to control the discharge of regional total pollutants in the region and improve the ability of water environment management and decision making, a multi-objective decision-making optimization model of water pollution load allocation was constructed, which took into account economy and fairness. The model takes the maximum environmental benefit and the minimum weighted comprehensive Gini coefficient as the objective function and takes into account the uncertainty and multi-objectives of the model, which is conducive to promoting economic development and ensuring the fairness of regional water pollutant discharge. A method based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with a genetic algorithm was designed to obtain the optimal solution set through multiple simulation optimization. This model is applied to Anhui Province to solve the allocation optimization problem of total pollutant reduction in the 13th Five-Year Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Plan. After the optimization of water pollution load distribution, the comprehensive Gini coefficients of COD and NH3-N are reduced by different ranges. The comprehensive Gini coefficient after COD optimization decreased by 2.4–4.6%, and the comprehensive Gini coefficient after NH3-N optimization decreased by 25.1–32.5%, which verified the feasibility and rationality of the model in the optimal allocation of the total discharge of regional water pollutants. The model takes into account uncertain subjective and objective factors that have an important impact on water pollutant discharge targets and decision variables, thus optimizing the total emissions of the entire regional control unit in both space and time.

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