A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA) to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs) (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production) on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic) and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies) relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow) and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores) hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative ranking of the four FMAs were detected between the combinations of forest biomes and tree species.

Classification of Forest Management Approaches: A New Conceptual Framework and Its Applicability to European Forestry

“…However, defining these phases is a means of arranging silvicultural operations and decisions along management cycles (Table 1). The value of being able to combine FMAs with their constituent phases is shown by Edwards et al (2012) and Jactel et al (2012).…”

Review. Assessing uncertainty and risk in forest planning and decision support systems: review of classical methods and introduction of new approaches

“…Outranking methods, such as ELECTRE and PROME-THEE are MCDM method in which the uncertainties of the decision variables can be accounted for using fuzzy relations . For instance, PROMETHEE has been employed recently to evaluate the impact of different hazards on different forest management alternatives in several European regions (Jactel et al, 2012).…”

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

“…Indeed, research output into risk management (including risk management around natural and other disasters) in a multicriteria framework has increased considerably in recent years. Some examples include [21], who used a multi-attribute utility model to select a value-focused strategy for reducing risk and protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident; reference [22] described the role and use of multicriteria analysis in complex environmental impact assessment and decision making; reference [23] developed an electricity planning model dealing with uncertainty and its associated risk by minimizing environmental risk through a multiple-criteria model and performing a risk analysis, which applies decision rules for selecting the best planning strategy under uncertainty; reference [24] developed a methodology that combined the quantifiable conventional approach to risk (likelihood and consequence), the analysis of perceived risk based on stakeholders' judgments and an analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis into a decision framework for risk assessment and applied this to a case of flood risk management; and reference [25] developed a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA) model to compare the risk of ecological damage associated with various forest management systems, each with a different management intensity.…”