2017
DOI: 10.1007/s11135-017-0504-9
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A multiplicative process for generating the rank-order distribution of UK election results

Abstract: Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with a better understanding of social phenomena. Here we propose a generative multiplicative decrease model that gives rise to a rank-order distribution and allows us to analyse the results of the last three UK parliamentary elections. We provide empirical evidence that the additive Weibull distribution, which can be generated from our model, is a close fit to the electoral data, offering a novel interpretation of the re… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(30 citation statements)
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“…In these different approaches different theoretical fits for the marginal vote share distributions were proposed. In some of these works the empirical vote share data was fitted using the log-normal distribution [22], the normal distribution [25,27], distributions based on the Weibull distribution [28,30] and the beta distribution [29,31]. In this paper we would like to argue that it may be hard to distinguish between these distributions, but the beta distribution is likely to be the best choice.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In these different approaches different theoretical fits for the marginal vote share distributions were proposed. In some of these works the empirical vote share data was fitted using the log-normal distribution [22], the normal distribution [25,27], distributions based on the Weibull distribution [28,30] and the beta distribution [29,31]. In this paper we would like to argue that it may be hard to distinguish between these distributions, but the beta distribution is likely to be the best choice.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While the vote share distribution was mainly ignored in the previous sociophysics papers, the other statistical patterns arising during the many different elections were considered for the empirical analysis and modeling: a branching process model was proposed to reproduce the individual politician, nominated via open party list, vote share distribution [31], a network model was used to explain how people decide whether to take part in the municipal elections [34], a diffusive model for the turn-out was proposed in [33,35]. One of a more similar approaches was taken by [57], in which a generative model was proposed to reproduce the rank-size distribution of parties' vote share. Another similar approach, taken by [54], considered the vote share distribution observed in the elections of House of Representatives in Japan.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This type of research builds on the early work of Simon (Simon 1955), and the more recent work of Barabási's group (Albert and Barabási 2002) and other researchers. In recent work (Fenner et al 2017(Fenner et al , 2018, we have employed a multiplicative model that is designed to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis applications (Kleinbaum and Klein 2012). The resulting rank-ordering distribution (Sornette et al 1996), the beta-like distribution (cf (Martínez-Mekler et al 2009)), is a discrete analogue of the beta distribution (Gupta and Nadarajah 2004).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The resulting rank-ordering distribution (Sornette et al 1996), the beta-like distribution (cf (Martínez-Mekler et al 2009)), is a discrete analogue of the beta distribution (Gupta and Nadarajah 2004). An additive Weibull distribution was deployed in (Fenner et al 2018) to model constituency-based general election results, while in (Fenner et al 2017) a beta-like distribution was utilised to model the regional results in the UK 2016 EU referendum.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%