A multispecies biomass dynamics model for investigating predator–prey interactions in the Bering Sea groundfish community

Uchiyama, Tadayasu; Kruse, Gordon H.; Mueter, Franz J.

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.04.019

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…To test for the effects of variability in the cold pool on predation, in this study we modified the model of Uchiyama et al () to include temperature‐dependent predation rates as described below. The model was fit to survey biomass data and estimated prey biomass consumed by predators.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although each model has advantages and disadvantages, we selected the multispecies biomass dynamics model as the preferred model, because it produces more stable and realistic predictions in simulations than the multispecies delay difference model. Therefore, in this study, biomass dynamics of adult walleye pollock (age‐3+), arrowtooth flounder (age‐1+), Pacific cod (age‐1+), and a small‐mouth flatfish group (age‐1+) were modeled using the multispecies biomass dynamics model described in Uchiyama et al (), modified to include temperature‐dependent predation rates, as well as new estimates of the age composition of pollock prey as described above. Biomass of juvenile pollock (ages 0, 1, 2) was modeled with age structure to account for the effect of predation on recruitment through multiple juvenile age classes as described in Uchiyama et al ().…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, seven species-age groups were modeled (arrowtooth flounder, Pacific cod, small-mouth flatfish, and four age groups of pollock). Model details are provided in Uchiyama, Kruse, and Mueter (2016) and Appendix S1.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To test for the effects of variability in the cold pool on predation, in this study we modified the model of Uchiyama et al (2016) to include temperature-dependent predation rates as described below.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, in this study, biomass dynamics F I G U R E 3 Composition of small-mouth flatfish species as absolute biomass (1,000 tons) and as proportion of total biomass F I G U R E 4 Body length distributions of walleye pollock prey from the stomachs of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, Pacific cod, arrowtooth flounder, and yellowfin sole . The superimposed lines show the Gaussian probability density functions estimated from the data of adult walleye pollock (age-3+), arrowtooth flounder (age-1+), Pacific cod (age-1+), and a small-mouth flatfish group (age-1+) were modeled using the multispecies biomass dynamics model described in Uchiyama et al (2016), modified to include temperature-dependent predation rates, as well as new estimates of the age composition of pollock prey as described above. Biomass of juvenile pollock (ages 0, 1, 2) was modeled with age structure to account for the effect of predation on recruitment through multiple juvenile age classes as described in Uchiyama et al (2016).…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

Uchiyama

Mueter

Kruse

2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) supports one of the largest commercial fisheries in the world. Juvenile pollock are important forage fish in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem, often representing the largest fraction in the diets of major Bering Sea piscivores. Large variability in the EBS pollock stock biomass in recent years has been attributed primarily to fluctuations in recruitment. It has been hypothesized that predation rates on forage fishes increase when the cold pool (a body of cold water < 2°C) is extensive and covers much of the middle continental shelf, which tends to concentrate larger predatory fishes in the outer shelf and slope regions. In contrast, young pollock appear to tolerate colder temperatures than older fish and can stay in the cold pool, thereby reducing predation. We used a multispecies modeling approach to examine the effects of the cold pool size on predation of juvenile pollock. We found that predation on age‐1 pollock by age‐3+ pollock decreased, and predation on age‐1 and age‐2 pollock by arrowtooth flounder increased with increasing bottom temperature, which was used as a proxy for the cold pool size. These results suggest that the cold pool creates spatial separation between juvenile pollock and arrowtooth flounder, but not between adult and juvenile pollock. The model developed in this study could be used to examine the effects of other covariates on interspecific interactions, help explain observed changes in fish communities, and understand implications of climate change on ecosystems and their productivity.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

Uchiyama

Mueter

Kruse

2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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End-to-end modeling as part of an integrated research program in the Bering Sea

Punt

Ortiz

Aydin

et al. 2016

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

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a b s t r a c tTraditionally, the advice provided to fishery managers has focused on the trade-offs between short-and long-term yields, and between future resource size and expected future catches. The harvest control rules that are used to provide management advice consequently relate catches to stock biomass levels expressed relative to reference biomass levels. There are, however, additional trade-offs. Ecosystembased fisheries management (EBFM) aims to consider fish and fisheries in their ecological context, taking into account physical, biological, economic, and social factors. However, making EBFM operational remains challenging. It is generally recognized that end-to-end modeling should be a key part of implementing EBFM, along with harvest control rules that use information in addition to estimates of stock biomass to provide recommendations for management actions. Here we outline the process for selecting among alternative management strategies in an ecosystem context and summarize a Fieldintegrated End-To-End modeling program, or FETE, intended to implement this process as part of the Bering Sea Project. A key aspect of this project was that, from the start, the FETE included a management strategy evaluation component to compare management strategies. Effective use of end-to-end modeling requires that the models developed for a system are indeed integrated across climate drivers, lower trophic levels, fish population dynamics, and fisheries and their management. We summarize the steps taken by the program managers to promote integration of modeling efforts by multiple investigators and highlight the lessons learned during the project that can be used to guide future use and design of end-to-end models.

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Moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management: Options for parameterizing multi-species biological reference points

Moffitt

Punt

Holsman

et al. 2016

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

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The case of fisheries management illustrates how the inherent structural instability of ecosystems can have deep-running policy implications. We contrast ten types of management plans to achieve maximum sustainable yields (MSY) from multiple stocks and compare their effectiveness based on a management strategy evaluation (MSE) that uses complex food webs in its operating model. Plans that target specific stock sizes (B MSY ) consistently led to higher yields than plans targeting specific fishing pressures (F MSY ). A new self-optimising control rule, introduced here for its robustness to structural instability, led to intermediate yields. Most plans outperformed single-species management plans with pressure targets set without considering multispecies interactions. However, more refined plans to "maximise the yield from each stock separately", in the sense of a Nash equilibrium, produced total yields comparable to plans aiming to maximise total harvested biomass, and were more robust to structural instability. Our analyses highlight trade-offs between yields, amenability to negotiations, pressures on biodiversity, and continuity with current approaches in the European context. Based on these results, we recommend directions for developments of EU fisheries policy.

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A multispecies biomass dynamics model for investigating predator–prey interactions in the Bering Sea groundfish community

Cited by 6 publications

References 26 publications

Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

End-to-end modeling as part of an integrated research program in the Bering Sea

Moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management: Options for parameterizing multi-species biological reference points

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