A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Dippner, Joachim W.; Kornilovs, Georgs; Junker, Karin

doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Environmental variables used in the analyses (Table S1) included sea surface temperature (SST) and average temperature and salinity in the 0-50 m water layer. Additionally, the Baltic Sea environmental index (BSE) was used, which consists of the Arctic oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff into the Baltic Sea and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area (Dippner et al 2012). Average winter values (DecemberFebruary) of nitrogen (Nc) and phosphorus (Pc) concentrations in the surface layers (0-9 m) at different sub-areas (Fig.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on this knowledge, region-specific SST in summer (August), Baltic Sea environmental index (BSE) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) were included as explanatory variables in recruitment (R) models, both for sprat and herring. We used the more recently developed climate index BSE that shows a better performance than other climate indices such as BSI (Dippner et al 2012). Additionally, Nc and Pc were included in recruitment models to explore their significance in explaining recruitment fluctuations.…”

Section: Recruitment Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?

Eero

Andersson

Almroth‐Rosell

et al. 2016

Ambio

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Reducing anthropogenic nutrient inputs is a major policy goal for restoring good environmental status of coastal marine ecosystems. However, it is unclear to what extent reducing nutrients would also lower fish production and fisheries yields. Empirical examples of changes in nutrient loads and concurrent fish production can provide useful insights to this question. In this paper, we investigate to what extent a multi-fold increase in nutrient loads from the 1950s to 1980s enhanced forage fish production in the Baltic Sea. We use monitoring data on fish stock dynamics covering the period of the nutrient increase, combined with nutrient concentrations from a 3-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model. The results suggest that nutrient enrichment enhanced the biomass level of forage fish by up to 50 % in some years and areas due to increased body weight of fish. However, the trends in fish biomasses were generally decoupled from changes in nutrient concentrations.

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Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recruitment Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?

Eero

Andersson

Almroth‐Rosell

et al. 2016

Ambio

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“…Recently, Dippner et al (2012) have developed a multivariate environmental index for the Baltic Sea, which has a much better performance than all other existing climate indices for the Baltic Sea. Our scientific question is how can the prediction of ecological time series be improved in a situation when potential predictability decreases due to climate regime shifts?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our scientific question is how can the prediction of ecological time series be improved in a situation when potential predictability decreases due to climate regime shifts? According to Dippner et al (2012), we hypothesize that a multivariate climate index is the optimal way to answer this question.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

Dippner

Kröncke

2015

Journal of Marine Systems

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“…4, Box 4.1) and/or the Baltic Sea Index (BSI, difference of sea-level air pressure anomalies between Oslo and Szczecin, Lehmann et al 2002) indices (e.g. Lehmann et al 2011;Dippner et al 2012). In the northern sea areas, the recent decrease in the extent and duration of ice cover (see Chap.…”

Section: Trends and Variations In Water Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Change—Marine Circulation and Stratification

Elken

Lehmann

Myrberg

2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter describes recent change in the circulation and stratification of the Baltic Sea. A recent warming trend in sea-surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by in situ measurements, remote sensing data and numerical models. Trends in sea-surface temperature (SST) for the past three to four decades based on remote sensing data generally agree with trends determined from in situ observations. Models suggest the current warming within the Baltic Sea lies within the range experienced during the past 500 years. The salinity and stratification of the deep waters are strongly linked to the major inflows of North Sea water that occur sporadically and bring high-saline water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. The major inflows normally occur during winter and spring and bring cold oxygen-rich waters into the deep basins. Since 1996, large inflows have also occurred during summer, bringing in warm low-oxygen water. IntroductionChanges in thermohaline characteristics and stratification of the water column are usually analysed on the basis of data from repeat hydrographic observations, originating from shipborne monitoring programmes and/or permanent coastal and offshore oceanographic stations. Such datasets are described in recent books by Feistel et al. (2008) and Leppäranta and Myrberg (2009). In situ observations are often irregular in space and time, especially for offshore areas; therefore, trends and variability in the ocean state can only be determined by careful pre-processing of the data to address issues such as data homogenisation and the suppression of aliasing errors. In recent decades, horizontal undersampling by in situ measurements has been partially offset by the remote sensing of sea-surface properties from satellites; with these data free of spatial aliasing errors due to their high horizontal resolution. Satellite-derived cloud-free products for sea-surface temperature (SST) have been reasonably accurate since the 1980s. Many of the papers published over the past decade that address trends and variability in the circulation and stratification of the Baltic Sea are based on remote sensing data, often in combination with in situ observations and the results of numerical modelling. Improvements in the physical and numerical features of the models, accompanied by model validation studies, have increased confidence in the realism of the model results. Models provide dynamically balanced gridded datasets over decades or longer, including information for 'noisy' variables such as currents, transport and mixing fluxes. This chapter analyses the recent peer-reviewed literature, extending the findings from earlier review (Box 7.1).

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A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Cited by 7 publications

References 42 publications

Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?

Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

Recent Change—Marine Circulation and Stratification

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