A municipality-specific analysis to investigate persistent increased incidence rates of childhood leukaemia near the nuclear power plant of Krümmel in Germany

Abstract

Increased incidence rates for childhood leukaemia have been reported in municipalities close to the nuclear power plant (NPP) Krümmel (Geesthacht, Germany). Methodological challenges arise when analysing this association at ecological level. They include the use of an appropriate reference population, unstable estimates of standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), and the potential role of prevailing winds. The aim of our study is to address these challenges. The German Childhood Cancer Registry provided data on leukaemia in children under 15 years (2004–2019). The German Federal Statistical Office provided the population data. The study region included all municipalities with ≥ 75% surface area within 50 kms from the Krümmel NPP. We calculated SIRs using national and regional reference rates. Smoothed incidence relative rates (IRRs) were calculated and mapped to check for potential patterns associated with prevailing winds. Overall 356 cases of childhood leukaemia were observed in the study region (321 municipalities) during 2004–2019. SIRs based on national reference rates show nearly no difference to those calculated using the regional rates as reference. Increased SIR and IRR were observed in Geesthacht (observed-cases = eight; SIR = 2.29; 95% confidence interval: 0.99–4.51. IRR = 1.80; 95% credibility interval: 0.88–2.79). The analysis of the IRR map does not show patterns associated with prevailing winds. Using a regional population as the reference, we found evidence that there may still be an increased risk for childhood leukaemia in Geesthacht. However, IRR estimates are uncertain and credibility intervals are compatible with the absence of elevated risk. The persistent evidence of risk of childhood leukaemia in Geesthacht warrants further epidemiological surveillance.