A Natural Quasi-Experiment of the Monetary Policy Shocks on the Housing Markets of New Zealand during COVID-19

Abstract

It is hard to experimentally test the impacts of monetary policy shocks on housing markets as it is very unlikely for a central bank to change monetary policies swiftly twice within a short period of time for exogenous reasons. However, during the pandemic, the central bank of New Zealand changed its policies 180 degree in 2 years, from an unprecedented low interest rate and a relaxed mortgage policy in 2020 to a 13-year record high interest rate and a tightened mortgage policy in 2022. Among the OECD members, New Zealand is the country that increased the interest rate the earliest and also the country that had its house prices fall the earliest. It provides natural quasi-experiments to test the monetary policy hypothesis empirically by the two policy changes as treatments on house prices. This study conducts a time series regression analysis on the housing markets of New Zealand to test the hypothesis in the pre-COVID and the COVID periods, ranging from 2016 Q2 to 2022 Q3. The results confirm that mortgage rates have a negative and significant effect on house price changes after controlling for the economic growth factor and the housing supply factor, no matter whether the monetary policy switches to expansionary or contractionary mode. The robustness test results of the housing markets show that a 1% fall/rise in the mortgage rate caused a 5.6% increase/decrease in house prices, ceteris paribus, in the COVID period. The results also do not support the housing supply hypothesis in New Zealand.

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