A New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle

Abstract

P (MICINU, AEI/ERDF, EU), respectively. All remaining errors are our responsibility. Data and codes that replicate our results are available from the authors' websites. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

Recession Probabilities Falling From the STARs

“…In this context Harding and Pagan (2006) develop a nonparametric algorithm to identify the reference cycle by clustering a set of indicator-specic cycles. More recently, Watson (2010, 2014) and Camacho, Gadea, and Loscos (2019) propose two distinct methods to identify business cycle turning points based on the population distribution of indicator-specic turning points.…”

“…With more than hundred time series our dataset is considerably larger than those used in Harding and Pagan (2006) and Camacho et al (2019) focusing on a small number of economic indicators which have been considered by the NBER Business Cycle Dating 1 The reader is referred to Hamilton (2011) for a detailed overview of the literature on identifying and predicting business cycle turning points. Committee (2003Committee ( , 2010, respectively.…”