A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

Feng, Xiangbo; Hodges, Kevin I.; Hoang, Lam; Pura, Alvin G.; Yang, Guo-Jing; Luu, Huyen; David, Shirley J.; Duran, Ger Anne M.W.; Guo, Yongquan

doi:10.1029/2022jd036439

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…The MetUM simulations and ERA5 have similar horizontal resolution and have the same TC tracking method, so that it is fairer to validate MetUM against ERA5 TCs than against observed TCs. The conclusions are unchanged when validating against the observed Best Track data, except the slightly larger bias in the east (Feng et al., 2020) related to an earlier identification of TCG in ERA5 (Feng et al., 2022) and some mismatched storms between the two datasets (Bourdin et al., 2022; Stansfield et al., 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) climatology is fundamental for understanding TC variation and changes in the past and future. Large‐scale wind circulations can provide favorable conditions for TCG (Feng et al., 2022; Lander & Holland, 1993; Ritchie & Holland, 1999; Wang, 2017; Wang et al., 2019, 2022). Through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances, the monsoon trough (MT) and intertropical convergence zone are hypothesized to act a “seeding bed” of WNP TCs (Feng & Wu, 2022; Gu et al., 2022; Wu et al., 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Approach to Link Climate Model Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias to Large‐Scale Wind Circulation Modes

Feng

Toumi

Roberts

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large‐scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large‐scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased toward the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north‐eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics‐subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Approach to Link Climate Model Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias to Large‐Scale Wind Circulation Modes

Feng

Toumi

Roberts

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The analysis approach in this paper can be applied to other coasts where tropical storms and climate variability are main contributors to storm surges, such as the Indian coasts and the east coast of the United States. Useful statistical and dynamical models have been developed recently to predict the ENSO and regional TCs in the WNP (Camp et al 2019, Wang et al 2019, Chu and Murakami 2022, Feng et al 2022. These offer an unprecedented opportunity to predict extreme sea levels months or seasons ahead by using the dynamically produced predictors in the prediction model for storm surges.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ENSO can affect the genesis, track and intensity of WNP TCs by altering the amount of sea surface energy available for TC activity and by modulating the background steering flow in which TCs are embedded Sobel 2005, Feng et al 2020). However, the teleconnection of ENSO to TCs that affect the WNP coasts is complicated and may not be linear (Feng et al 2022). In El Niño years, WNP TCs tend to form in the central tropical Pacific and become more intense when making landfall in the west due to the longer lifetime over the ocean than in La Niña years (Camargo and Sobel 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surge variability and prediction from ENSO and tropical cyclones

Tan

Zhang

Feng

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Storm surges are among the deadliest natural hazards, but understanding and prediction of year-to-year variability of storm surges is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that the interannual variability of observed storm surge levels can be explained and further predicted, through a process-based study in Hong Kong. We find that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a compound impact on storm surge levels through modulating tropical cyclones (TCs) and other forcing factors. The occurrence frequencies of local and remote TCs are responsible for the remaining variability in storm surge levels after removing the ENSO effect. Finally, we show that a statistical prediction model formed by ENSO and TC indices has good skill for prediction of extreme storm surge levels. The analysis approach can be applied to other coastal regions where tropical storms and the climate variability are main contributors to storm surges. Our study gives new insight into identifying “windows of opportunity” for successful prediction of storm surges on long-range timescales.

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“…transport influences on the WPSH position and SST at the TC genesis location. This method can also be combined with the study provided by Feng et al (2022) to check the robustness of each other.…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-range prediction of the tropical cyclone frequency landfalling in China using thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes

Liu,

Zheng,

Jin

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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The landfalls of the tropical cyclone (TC) along the coast of China have caused huge economic damages. There are approximately nine TC landfalls in China every year. It will be beneficial if the landfall frequency can be predicted in advance. Inspired by the study of Sparks and Toumi (Commun Earth Environ, 30-1-2020), six datasets, including four ocean reanalyses and two object analyses from 1993 to 2019, are employed to study the consistency in the relationship between the thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes and the frequency of TC landfalls along the coastal areas of China (South China, East China, and the whole of China). The thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes are tested in order to confirm our hypothesis that the eastward and westward transports of ocean heat from the warm pool are the causes of the significant correlations. The results show some significant correlations at various longitudes, and the temperature anomalies can predict the TC landfall frequency for several months or longer. Further study also shows the close relationship between the ocean heat transport and the sea surface temperature anomalies at the genesis locations of TC landfalls. The locations of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during high-frequency TC landfall years also show favorable spatial patterns to the TC landfall in South China and East China, respectively. In years with a high TC frequency in South China, the westward displacement of the WPSH ridge steers TC toward South China, while during high-frequency TC landfall years in East China, WPSH is located further north, and the westward extension of the ridge is in close proximity to the East China Sea.

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A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

Cited by 6 publications

References 95 publications

An Approach to Link Climate Model Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias to Large‐Scale Wind Circulation Modes

An Approach to Link Climate Model Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias to Large‐Scale Wind Circulation Modes

Storm surge variability and prediction from ENSO and tropical cyclones

Long-range prediction of the tropical cyclone frequency landfalling in China using thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes

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