A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries

Ershkov, Sergey V.; Rachinskaya, Alla

doi:10.1007/s11071-021-06244-2

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 11 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Three weeks following the implementation of the RMCO, Malaysia started experiencing a resurgence in daily cases which marked the beginning of the third COVID-19 wave from 20 September 2020. The WHO had warned that a premature lifting or easing of movement restriction would risk a resurgence of COVID-19 cases (14)(15)(16)(17). Similar resurgence in COVID-19 outbreaks was observed following the easing of movement restrictions as experienced in Germany, Iran, China and South Korea (13).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Zamri

Singh²,

Ghazali

et al. 2021

Epidemiol Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objectives: Since March 2020, several phases of the movement control measures were instituted in Malaysia to break the COVID-19 chain of transmission. In this study, we developed Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models to examine the effects of the various movement control phases on the disease transmissibility and case trends during the third COVID-19 wave in Malaysia.Methods: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from 1 September 2020 to 29 March 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from 14 October 2020 to 29 March 2021 based on three movement control phases. Results:We found that the R values had reduced by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the Nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest cases were much lower compared to the forecast cumulative and daily highest cases at 64.4% to 98.9% and 68.8% to 99.8%, respectively. Conclusion:We conclude that the movement control measures were able to progressively reduce the R values during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective in reducing the R values and case numbers further during the third wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia due to their higher stringency levels compared to the Nationwide RMCO.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Zamri

Singh²,

Ghazali

et al. 2021

Epidemiol Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Works [25][26][27] are devoted to the modeling of processes of the COVID-19 spread. These works include critical comments about the dangers of infection and provide recommendations on protection measures.…”

Section: General Information About Covid-19 Transformation Of Urban Public Transport Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Open Business Model of COVID-19 Transformation of an Urban Public Transport System: The Experience of a Large Russian City

Petrov

Petrova

2021

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dialectics, or developmental transformation, would eventually cause any system to change. The level and depth of these changes vary and depend on the power of external influence and system reservation mechanisms. The art of managing system processes consists of two main aspects. The first aspect involves the sagacity of managers and predicting general environmental change trends (and their impacts on the managed system). The second involves adjusting to these trends, maximizing possible benefits, and minimizing the negative manifestations of this process. Innovation plays an important role, contributing to system transformations with maximal effect and minimal loss. Public transport systems are important elements in cities, as they provide spatial mobility for at least half of the citizens of a city who cannot use individual transportation. Modern urbanization and peculiarities of the social–economic statuses of many citizens contribute to the fact that organized public transportation is unprofitable. The low solvency of citizens who use public transportation services means that passenger transport systems do not work with enough profitability. As a result, governing institutions often choose to subsidize unprofitable transporter activities, thereby prolonging the functioning of unprofitable routes. This is possible only in conditions of sustainability (in regards to a non-optimal system), when the environment is calm, and its negative impact is low. “Black swans” (according to N. Taleb) are bifurcation factors that break the sustainability of non-optimal system. Urban public transport (UPT) of a large Russian city, Tyumen, experienced it in 2020, in connection with the COVID-19 lockdown. The sharp decrease in population mobility in Tyumen, in 2020–2021, caused the need for a complete transformation of the transport service system. However, managers did not want to fundamentally change a system that consensually suited most counterparties. The search for new balances in a system that demands transformation is one way for sustainable provision. This article looks at the transformation and sustainability of a UPT system in the large Russian city of Tyumen, under conditions affected by the negative impact of COVID-19. Results of a comparative (i.e., pre-crisis (2019) and crisis (2020)) Pareto analysis of the contributions of different UPT routes are presented. Transformation of the structure of the UPT route system can overcome the “crisis” COVID-19 period and minimize its financial-economic costs.

show abstract

“…The negative geographic correlation of estimated incidence between the first two waves of COVID-19 in Italy has been analysed by Carletti and Pancrazi [60] . Ershkov and Rachinskaya [61] studied the new approximation of mean-time trends for the CoV-19 second wave in the key six countries. An SEIR model of SARS CoV-2 second wave in France and Italy has been explained by Faranda and Alberti [62] and Ghanbari [63] forecasted the second wave of covid-19 in Iran.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preventive control strategy on second wave of Covid-19 pandemic model incorporating lock-down effect

Basu¹,

Kumar²,

Santra

et al. 2022

Alexandria Engineering Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study presents an optimal control strategy through a mathematical model of the Covid-19 outbreak without lock-down. The pandemic model analyses the lock-down effect without control strategy based on the current scenario of second wave data to control the rapid spread of the virus. The pandemic model has been discussed with respect to the basic reproduction number and stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibrium. A new optimal control problem with treatment is framed to minimize the vulnerable situation of the second wave. This system is applied to study the effects of vaccines and treatment controls. Numerical solutions and the graphical presentation of the results predict the fate of India’s second wave situation on account of the control strategy. Lastly, a comparative study with control and without control has been analysed for the exposed phase, infective phase, and recovery phase to understand the effectiveness of the controls. This model is used to estimate the total number of infected and active cases, deaths, and recoveries in order to control the disease using this system and studying the effects of vaccines and treatment controls.

show abstract

A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries

Cited by 12 publications

References 11 publications

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Open Business Model of COVID-19 Transformation of an Urban Public Transport System: The Experience of a Large Russian City

Preventive control strategy on second wave of Covid-19 pandemic model incorporating lock-down effect

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About