A New Digital Twin for Climate Change Adaptation, Water Management, and Disaster Risk Reduction (HIP Digital Twin)

Abstract

The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.