A New Electorate? Explaining the Party Preferences of Immigrant-Origin Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election

Goerres, Achim; Mayer, Sabrina Jasmin; Spies, Dennis C.

doi:10.1017/s0007123421000302

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Whether these grievances about public safety can lead to a rightward shift in immigrants' voting behavior likely depends on how the right frames the crime issue in its public statements. Linking crime problems to immigrants and especially their cultural and religious background might scare 35 But see Goerres, Mayer and Spies (2021) for an alternative view.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reflecting this attitudinal divergence, voters in cities tend to vote for progressive parties, while their counterparts in rural areas are significantly more likely to support conservative and radical-right parties. As a result, metropolitan areas in advanced democracies tend to be in the hands of the left, also because ethnic minority voters, who make up a significant share of urban residents in many post-industrial societies, largely vote for progressive parties as well (Dancygier and Saunders, 2006;Goerres, Mayer and Spies, 2021). 5…”

Section: Cities As Progressive Strongholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Crime and Urban Politics

Alizade

2024

Preprint

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Cities in advanced democracies are commonly portrayed as centers of cosmopolitanism and electoral strongholds of the left. I argue that the issue of crime can reshape urban politics by providing opportunities for right-wing parties as issue-owners of crime to make inroads among urban electorates, thereby weakening progressive parties' dominance over cities. Focusing on Germany, I first present evidence from a geocoded survey (N=3,083) showing that concern about crime is higher among both right- and left-wing voters in urban areas compared to their rural counterparts. A text analysis of a large corpus of political ads (N=35,359) posted on Facebook by German political parties and complemented with qualitative evidence further suggests that the center-right CDU/CSU strategically responds to voter concern about crime in cities, while left-wing parties pay little attention to this issue. In a final step, I demonstrate that the center-right's “urban strategy” pays off electorally: A neighborhood-level panel analysis of Berlin shows that crime increases the CDU's vote share in the state parliament elections, while decreasing electoral support for the Greens -- the party most closely associated with an urban, cosmopolitan electorate. On the micro-level, a candidate-choice conjoint experiment among German voters in large cities (N=2,086) demonstrates that the center-right can attract a substantial share of progressive voters from the Social Democrats and the Greens through law-and-order stances. Overall, this paper shows that the rightward shift of advanced democracies is not restricted to rural areas or small towns but extends to urban centers usually perceived to be progressive strongholds.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cities As Progressive Strongholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crime and Urban Politics

Alizade

2024

Preprint

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“…DeSipio, 1996;Ramakrishnan and Espenshade, 2001;Bass and Casper, 2001;Hill and Moreno, 1996;Barreto, 2007), however, the topic has also started to attract attention in the European setting (e.g. Goerres et al, 2022;Strijbis, 2014;Wüst, 2004). While a bulk of this literature shows that partisan attachments and vote choice differ by immigrant group depending on the country or region of origin, explanations of the emergence of these patterns often fall short.…”

Section: Political Behaviour Socialisation and Regime Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lingering Memories of the Past? The Ideological Behaviour of Immigrants Socialised in Authoritarian Regimes

Lindemann

2023

Preprint

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How does the political socialisation in authoritarian regimes affect the political behaviour of immigrants in democracies? The political past of immigrants is oftenoverlooked when assessing their behaviour, although experiences with politics can differ substantially. In this paper, I suggest that immigrants socialised in left-wing authoritarian regimes avoid the political left and support right of centre parties, while immigrants socialised in right-wing authoritarian regimes do not translate anti-right biases into host country politics. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel and V-Dem while applying Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM), I find a bias against the political left for immigrants socialised in left-wing authoritarian regimes compared to their democratic counterparts. Immigrants socialised in right-wing authoritarian regimes also express a bias against the political left, but only if the country has a longer communist past, otherwise no substantial differences appear. These results have important implications for how authoritarianism shapes political behaviour in a different context.

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Religiosität, gesellschaftliche Einstellungen und politische Orientierungen in Deutschland

Müller

Pollack

2022

Z Religion Ges Polit

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ZusammenfassungDer Beitrag fragt danach, wie sich die religiöse Landschaft in Deutschland heute gestaltet und in welcher Beziehung sie zu anderen Bereichen des gesellschaftlichen Zusammenlebens steht. Dabei richtet sich der Blick sowohl auf allgemeine und übergreifende Tendenzen und Muster als auch auf Aspekte, die unterschiedliche soziale Gruppen voneinander trennen. Nach einem kurzen geschichtlichen Abriss wird die aktuelle Situation und Entwicklung des religiösen Feldes anhand ausgewählter Befunde aus dem Religionsmonitor dargestellt. Neben der Differenzierung zwischen dem Gebiet der „alten“ Bundesrepublik und dem der ehemaligen DDR steht hierbei der Vergleich der gesellschaftlich bedeutendsten religiösen bzw. weltanschaulichen Gruppierungen im Mittelpunkt. Schließlich wird analysiert, inwieweit sich die Gruppen im Hinblick auf ausgewählte gesellschaftliche und politische Einstellungen und Orientierungen unterscheiden. Mit Blick auf die Rolle der Religion in der Gesellschaft und ihre Bedeutung für die Bevölkerung verläuft innerhalb Deutschlands nach wie vor eine entscheidende Trennlinie zwischen dem weitgehend säkularisierten „Osten“ und dem noch immer vergleichsweise stark konfessionell-religiös geprägten „Westen“. Innerreligiöse Differenzen lassen sich hauptsächlich zwischen den christlich geprägten Bevölkerungsteilen auf der einen und der muslimischen Minderheit auf der anderen Seite ausmachen. Hinsichtlich der Frage, inwieweit Religion auch in andere Wertebereiche hineinwirkt und welche Rolle sie in diesem Zusammenhang für Aspekte des sozialen Zusammenhalts spielt, fällt das Ergebnis ambivalent aus: In Bezug auf die Zustimmung zur Legitimität der Demokratie konnten wir kaum Differenzen zwischen den Religionen ausmachen, wohl aber zwischen verschiedenen Typen von Religiosität. Einstellungen zu Geschlechterrollen und zur gleichgeschlechtlichen Ehe differieren dagegen auch in Abhängigkeit von der religiösen Zugehörigkeit. Stärkere Vorbehalte gegenüber liberalen geschlechterspezifischen Haltungen lassen sich vor allem bei Befragten muslimischen Glaubens feststellen, wobei sich über die Generationen hinweg eine Annäherung an die anderen Gruppen feststellen lässt.

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A New Electorate? Explaining the Party Preferences of Immigrant-Origin Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election

Cited by 7 publications

References 60 publications

Crime and Urban Politics

Crime and Urban Politics

Lingering Memories of the Past? The Ideological Behaviour of Immigrants Socialised in Authoritarian Regimes

Religiosität, gesellschaftliche Einstellungen und politische Orientierungen in Deutschland

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