A new forecasting model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 standard certifications in European countries

Abstract

ISO 9000 standards for quality system management are involving a higher and higher number of enterprises and organizations. This paper presents a detailed analysis of certification diffusion in Italy and in some European countries with similar economic structures. Benchmarking and evolution forecasts are based on the "logistic model", traditionally used for studying biological growth phenomena. The presentation is supported by many empirical data, which show that, in many countries, the phenomenon is going to be close to saturation. Finally, some considerations about new developments, after the present "certification era", are proposed.

ISO 14001 diffusion after the success of the ISO 9001 model

“…In these figures, it is clearly seen how the logistic model used characterizes the number of certificates for both standards to a very satisfactory degree. This once again confirms that the aforementioned model is valid for representing and forecasting the growth of both standards beyond the forecasts made by Franceschini et al [14] and Marimon et al [17].…”

“…On the other hand, Franceschini et al [14] have established that the logistic curve explains the dissemination of the ISO 9000 well. As reflected in mathematical literature, the logistic curve model was applied for the first time by the Belgian mathematician Verhulst during the 19th century in the field of biology to account for the growth of a species.…”

“…Recently, research focusing on the endogenous process of ISO 9000 dissemination has been carried out internationally, and the work of Saraiva and Duarte [13] and Franceschini et al [14] stand out. Now, in the academic literature known to us, only Professors Corbett and Kirsch [15], in an extension of the research carried out by Vastag [16] and Marimon et al [17], have analyzed the joint dissemination of ISO 14000 and ISO 9000.…”

An empirical study on the integration of management system audits

“…Several academic studies on the diffusion of ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 have found that the increase in registrations to these two management system standards can eventually arrive at the point of saturation. For example, Franceschini et al (2004), Marimon et al (2006) and Casadesus et al (2008) model this diffusion in different countries and forecast when saturation points will be reached in each country. The results indicate that in certain countries, for instance in the European Union, this point has already been reached or will be reached in a few years, while in others, such as in the United States, saturation will not occur that soon, due to a later time when registrations picked up in those countries.…”

Business Standardization in the World – State of the Art

“…In Italy and some European countries that have similar economic structure a detailed analysis of certification diffusion has been done resulted in the suggestion of new model describing the process of certification diffusion and forecasting the certifications growth with the time required to reach the level of saturation [3].…”