A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities

Niaz, Rizwan; Almazah, Mohammed M. A.; Hussain, Ijaz; Filho, João Dehon Pontes

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03876-7

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…ese indices use information from the indicators (precipitation and temperature) to classify drought classes in the selected stations. e data of these indicators have been used in several publications [86,97,98,[112][113][114]. e various drought classes of the selected stations and indices are used to propose RCAMD.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the agricultural lands of the country depend on the reservoir systems that are linked to the selected stations. Several publications related to drought analysis [86,[97][98][99] have been based on these stations. Based on these publications and importance of the stations for the reservoir systems, therefore, these stations are selected for the current analysis.…”

Section: Gupis Skardumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…erefore, the study of the particular region has significant importance; thus, current research is applied to the specific region. e selected region has a homogeneous pattern of drought occurrences concerning specific drought indices and a time scale (onemonth time scale) [76,[96][97][98][99]. Ali et al [96] examined meteorological drought based on three indices (SPI, SPEI, and SPTI).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

et al. 2022

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Drought is a creeping phenomenon that slowly holds an area over time and can be continued for many years. The impacts of drought occurrences can affect communities and environments worldwide in several ways. Thus, assessment and monitoring of drought occurrences in a region are crucial for reducing its vulnerability to the negative impacts of drought. Therefore, comprehensive drought assessment techniques and methods are required to develop adaptive strategies that a region can undertake to reduce its vulnerability to drought substantially. For this purpose, this study proposes a new method known as a regional comprehensive assessment of meteorological drought (RCAMD). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Precipitation and Temperature Index (SPTI) are jointly used for the development of the RCAMD. Further, the RCAMD employs Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) and steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to comprehensively collect information from various stations and drought indices. Moreover, the RCAMD is validated on the six selected stations in the northern areas of Pakistan. The outcomes associated with the RCAMD provide a comprehensive regional assessment of meteorological drought and become the initial source for bringing more considerations to drought monitoring and early warning systems.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gupis Skardumentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

et al. 2022

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“…Each time scale represents a distinct aspect of drought, where shorter periods assess shorter-term drought events, and longer periods provide insights into longer-term drought patterns [59]. Te SPI allows for a comparison of precipitation amounts over a specifed time and historical precipitation totals for that same period across all available years [24,30,41,46,43]. To compute SPI, a long-term precipitation record of at least 30 years is required [60].…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index Te Standardizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought indices are particularly useful tools and play an important role in monitoring droughts and providing a comprehensive overview of drought conditions [33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Te Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has prevailed to assess meteorological drought due to simplicity in calculation and ability to assess drought for diferent time scales [24,30,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46]. Based on the importance of SPI for monitoring meteorological drought, the current research employs SPI for monitoring and modeling the spatiotemporal interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought in selected stations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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A new concept of drought feeling against the meteorological drought

Hooshyaripor

Sardari

Dehghani

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Drought is a natural disaster that causes much damage to the communities. Recently, water demand has been increasing sharply due to the population growth and the development process. By approaching the amount of water demand to the natural supplies, any decrease in the water supply may lead to a considerable negative socio-economic consequence. In this condition, the sense of drought prevails over the physical drought. Therefore, usual drought indices can not be used for characterizing and monitoring the drought in a basin. In this paper, multivariate standardized drought feeling index (MSDFI) is introduced which represents two dimensions of water management: (1) water supply in terms of precipitation and (2) water demand in terms of population. The MSDFI is calculated and its variation over time is compared to the standardized precipitation index (SPI). According to the results, MSDFI values in the early years were usually higher than SPI values and vice versa in the last years. This situation is highly correlated with the population trend in the basin. Thereafter, intensity of drought index (IDI) was defined as the difference between MSDFI and SPI to show the role of water demand in the drought feeling. Results show that IDI has an increasing trend in the populated areas, generally downstream of the basin, where population growth is high. In contrast, in the sparsely populated areas generally upstream of the basin where population growth is low and even negative due to migration, the IDI does not show any significant sense of drought.

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A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities

Cited by 10 publications

References 45 publications

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

A new concept of drought feeling against the meteorological drought

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