A new information diffusion modelling technique based on vibrating string equation and its application in natural disaster risk assessment

Abstract

In this paper, to naturally fill the gap in incomplete data, a new algorithm is proposed for estimating the risk of natural disasters based on the information diffusion theory and the equation of the vibrating string. Two experiments are performed with small samples to investigate its effectiveness. Furthermore, to demonstrate the practicality of the new algorithm, it is applied to study the relationship between epicentral intensity and earthquake magnitude, with strong-motion earthquake observations measured in Yunnan Province in China. The regression model, the back-propagation neural network and the conventional information diffusion model are also involved for comparison. All results show that the new algorithm, which can unravel fuzzy information in incomplete data, is better than the main existing methods for risk estimation.

RETRACTED: The Temporal-Spatial Distribution and Information-Diffusion-Based Risk Assessment of Forest Fires in China

“…This study adopts information diffusion theory to estimate the forest fire risk in provinces in China. In recent decades, information diffusion theory risk has been widely used for the risk assessment of natural disasters [58][59][60]. It applies fuzzy information to deal with samples combined with associated diffusion functions [61,62].…”

Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle

“…The principle of dynamical model reconstruction has been introduced in the previous studies [12,15,16] and is not described in detail here but can be found in Appendix A.…”

“…However, the dynamical prediction equations derived by Zhang et al [12] and Bai et al [15,16] greatly depend on the initial value, so the long-term forecast over 15 days diverged significantly and the results were not satisfactory. For the long-term forecast, the model should be improved.…”

“…Concerning the questions of local convergence of errors, Zhang et al [12] introduced genetic algorithms (GA), which is widely used in a lot of fields [13,14], to improve the determination of root efficiency of model parameters. On that basis, Bai et al [15,16] carried out research on the reconstruction of a nonlinear statistical-dynamical forecast model of the WPSH and achieved good results.…”