A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry, provincial, national and external factors

Abstract

We examine ‡uctuations in employment growth using Canadian data from 1976 to 2010. We consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our …ndings to modeling assumptions. The results from our most preferred model, which we selected using the Bayesian Information Criteria, indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that Campolieti gratefully acknowledges the …nancial support of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). Please address correspondence to Michele Campolieti, Centre for Industrial Relations, University of Toronto, 121 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2E8, Canada; email: campolie@chass.utoronto.ca. 1 is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources, with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors. Overall, we …nd external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment ‡uctuations than earlier research. We provide some possible explanations for these di¤erences.

The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

“…By contrast, Prasad and Thomas (1998), using annual data for the period 1975-98 …nd that industry-speci…c shocks account for the largest fraction of the variation in employment growth across Canadian provinces, although they still …nd a signi…cant role for external shocks, again proxied by shocks to U.S. GDP growth. More recently Campolieti et al (2014) …nd that external and national factors play a much smaller role than the earlier research for Canadian provinces, with industry and provincial factors playing a more important role. Kuttner and Sbordone (1997) use a similar methodology to Norrbin and Schlagenhauf (1988) and Altonji and Ham (1990) to examine the drivers of quarterly employment ‡uctuations in New York state over the period 1969-93.…”

The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas*

“…By contrast, Prasad and Thomas (1998), using annual data for the period 1975–98 find that industry‐specific shocks account for the largest fraction of the variation in employment growth across Canadian provinces, although they still find a significant role for external shocks, again proxied by shocks to US GDP growth. More recently Campolieti, Gefang and Koop (2014) find that external and national factors play a much smaller role than the earlier research for Canadian provinces, with industry and provincial factors playing a more important role.…”

Analisis Dampak Sosial Ekonomi Budaya Kegiatan Eksplorasi Panasbumi di WKP Baturraden (Studi Kasus di Desa Karangtengah, Kecamatan Cilongok, Kabupaten Banyumas)

“…Berdasarkan data yang dihimpun oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (2020), distribusi pekerjaan penduduk Desa Karangtengah didominasi oleh masyarakat yang bekerja di bidang pertanian sebanyak 3.096 jiwa, sedangkan jumlah pengangguran sebanyak 48 jiwa. Menurut Campolieti (2014), pengangguran terjadi karena adanya ketimpangan antara pertumbuhan penduduk usia kerja dengan penyediaan lapangan kerja, sehingga menimbulkan kesenjangan yang disebut pengangguran. Nilai Qtp pada dampak kesempatan kerja tanpa adanya kegiatan eksplorasi panasbumi WKP Baturraden berasal dari jumlah pengangguran yang ada di Desa Karangtengah menurut data sekunder.…”