A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

Tahroudi, Mohammad Nazeri; Ramezani, Yousef; Michele, Carlo De; Mirabbasi, Rasoul

doi:10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6

Cited by 43 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The connection of the statistical distribution of the studied variables increases the certainty of the simulations. The accuracy of the proposed approach in simulating and modeling of the different variables has been confirmed in various researches such as Tahroudi et al (2020aTahroudi et al ( , 2020b. To compare and evaluate the performance of the copula-based approach, the obtained results in this study were examined with the results of other researchers for the studied floods.…”

Section: Simulation Of the Outflow Hydrograph Of The Wrfmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…In recent years, the copula functions have been used in simulation and modeling of meteorological and hydrological variables and their efficiency and accuracy have been confirmed. For example, Tahroudi et al (2020a) introduced a new approach to simulate the occurrence of related variables based on the conditional density of copulas. The proposed approach was adopted to investigate the dynamics of hydrological and meteorological droughts in the Zarinehroud basin, Lake Urmia, Iran.…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Copulabased simulations and modeling are also important due to the high accuracy of the simulations. This model has a high ability in simulating and modeling of the meteorological and hydrological parameters (Tahroudi et al 2020a(Tahroudi et al , 2020b. In this study, the accuracy of the copula-based approach in flood routing and flood hydrograph simulation was investigated and compared with previous researches.…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood routing via a copula-based approach

et al. 2021

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Floods are among the most common natural disasters that if not controlled may cause severe damage and high costs. Flood control and management can be done using structural measures that should be designed based on the flood design studies. The simulation of outflow hydrograph using inflow hydrograph can provide useful information. In this study, a copula-based approach was applied to simulate the outflow hydrograph of various floods, including the Wilson River flood, the River Wye flood and the Karun River flood. In this regard, two-dimensional copula functions and their conditional density were used. The results of evaluating the dependence structure of the studied variables (inflow and outflow hydrographs) using Kendall's tau confirmed the applicability of copula functions for bivariate modeling of inflow and outflow hydrographs. The simulation results were evaluated using the root-mean-square error, the sum of squared errors and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The results showed that the copula-based approach has high performance. In general, the copula-based approach has been able to simulate the peak flow and the rising and falling limbs of the outflow hydrographs well. Also, all simulated data are at the 95% confidence interval. The NSE values for the copula-based approach are 0.99 for all three case studies. According to NSE values and violin plots, it can be seen that the performance of the copula-based approach in simulating the outflow hydrograph in all three case studies is acceptable and shows a good performance.

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Section: Simulation Of the Outflow Hydrograph Of The Wrfmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood routing via a copula-based approach

et al. 2021

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“…The Galambos copula best fits the observed drought data, offering valuable insights for water resource planning and management. In another study, Nazeri Tahroudi et al [21] proposed a copula-based new method to analyze meteorological and hydrological drought dynamics in the Zarinehroud basin. The Frank copula showed the best performance, allowing for the estimation of future drought durations and joint probabilities of drought characteristics for water resource management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A detailed study on quantification and modeling of drought characteristics using different copula families

Ahmad,

Rehman

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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“…Although the Pa and Pd methods are frequently applied in academic research to evaluate the precipitation variability and situation, few articles discuss the differences between the two methods. Some studies tried to compare different defining methods or modified Pa method to solve its problems (e.g., Nazeri Tahroudi et al., 2020; Wei & Ma, 2003). However, previous studies have not quantitatively studied the difference between the two methods in detail and identified what physical factors are responsible for the difference.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Difference of China Summer Precipitation Statistics Between Percentage Anomaly and Probability Distribution Methods Due to Tropical Warming

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2021

Earth and Space Science

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Precipitation anomaly grades are usually defined by the percentage anomaly (Pa) or probability distribution (Pd) methods. However, difference between the two may lead to different estimates for the same events, creating difficulty in judging the severity of the events. Here, we quantify the difference in measuring precipitation variability in China between Pa and Pd methods and analyze physical meaning and influencing factors of the difference. The results show that Pa tends to underestimate the domain of wetness (e.g., it underestimated 7.67% in June 2018) and overestimate/underestimate the severity of extreme wetness (>1.5σ)/dryness (<-1.3σ) compared to the Pd method. Because precipitation has a positive skewed distribution, and precipitation maximum values have a larger influence on Pa than on Pd. On the other hand, uniform Pa thresholds for classifying drought grades at all stations are unreasonable. Because an asymmetrical range of actual Pa value, Pa fails to symmetrically reflect the degree of drought and flood. Spatially, the large difference usually appears in the areas with extreme precipitation. Therefore, the more extreme precipitation stations, the greater the spatial dispersion of precipitation and the greater the total difference between Pa and Pd in whole China. We further find that the Pa-Pd difference is significantly related to a concurrent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific sea surface in spring. And the Pa-Pd difference is rising at 0.022σ/10a with increase of extreme events associated with the ocean warming, which deserves attention from the decision making departments.

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A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

Cited by 43 publications

References 30 publications

Flood routing via a copula-based approach

Flood routing via a copula-based approach

A detailed study on quantification and modeling of drought characteristics using different copula families

Increasing Difference of China Summer Precipitation Statistics Between Percentage Anomaly and Probability Distribution Methods Due to Tropical Warming

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