A New Method of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics

Radosavljević, Vladan

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5273-3_3

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Characteristics of this part of the method are described in refs [ 7 , 8 ]. After this first orientation about the type of COVID-19 outbreak, the second part of the method is subtle and detailed differentiation of the four possible UEE scenarios: natural outbreak of a known disease, natural outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease, outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen, and outbreak by a deliberate delivery of a biological agent (described in refs [ 1 , 9 ]) is shown in Table 2 . In both the parts of the method, indicators were scored with 1 if they were present in the outbreak, and scored with 0 if indicators were not present in the outbreak.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak origin in China in 2019 using differentiation method for unusual epidemiological events

Radosavljević

2021

Open Medicine

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Objectives Origin of outbreaks could be natural, accidental, deliberate, and caused by a new or re-emerging bioagent. The aim of this study was the retrospective analysis of whether the COVID-19 outbreak was natural, accidental, deliberate one, or caused by a new or re-emerging bioagent. Methods Analysis was performed according to the Radosavljevic–Belojevic method for outbreak scoring and differentiation. Data for the application of this method were obtained by literature review in the Medline database for the period from 2000 to 2020. Results The analysis of the unusual COVID-19 outbreak shows that the present official assumption of its natural origin is questionable and pointed out to a probability that the pathogen could have also been accidentally introduced in the human population. Conclusion There are no conclusive pieces of evidence about the reservoir of the pathogen or the source of infection. These parameters are essential for the final clarification of the outbreak origin. This study suggests that the COVID-19 outbreak is a consequence of an accidental release of a new COVID-19 virus, probably during the technical accident and/or negligent violation of hygienic norms in the laboratory facility. Further epidemiological, microbiological, and forensic analyses are needed to clarify the COVID-19 outbreak.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The origin of outbreaks could be natural, accidental, deliberate, and caused by a new or re-emerging bioagent [ 1 ]. There are very important issues/questions about COVID-19 outbreak origin: (1) What is the source of the outbreak?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak origin in China in 2019 using differentiation method for unusual epidemiological events

Radosavljević

2021

Open Medicine

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“…This method is based on 23 qualitative and 10 quantitative parameters (16)(17). Parameters with its characterizing features were grouped in four components of the chain of infection (Table 1): Reservoir/source of infection vs. perpetrator: sophistication, motivation, intention, intelligence, secrecy, number of perpetrators, number of reservoirs⁄sources of infection, accessibility to sources of pathogens or biological agents, accessibility to susceptible population or targets; Pathogen vs. biological agent: A category, B category, C category, emerging pathogen, amount of the pathogen or available agent; Factors of transmission vs. means/media of delivery: air, water, food, fomites, vectors (e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If all parameters of at least one of four components are scored with 0 or N/A the appropriate scenario is not considered as possible (17).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Escherichia Coli O104:H4 Outbreak in Germany in 2011 Using Differentiation Method for Unusual Epidemiological Events

Radosavljević¹,

Finke²,

Belojević

2016

Cent Eur J Public Health

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SUMMARYAim: The aim of the study was to further clarify the origin of Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011 (German Ec) as the likelihood of a deliberate act has not been excluded in previous analyses.Methods : We use an original and the most detailed scoring method so far, with 33 parameters pertaining to the source of infection/reservoir or possible perpetrator, pathogen or biological agent, transmission mechanism/factors or means/media of delivery, and population at risk or target.Results: Total scores for a deliberate or accidental epidemic indicate that the outbreak was more probably caused unintentionally, presumably due to technical accidents or hygienic shortcomings in the food chain.Conclusions: The validity of the present assessment is limited by the lack of data on the reservoir of the pathogen, the source of infection, and the mode of food contamination. Conclusive evidences on these parameters are essential for the final clarification of the outbreak origin.

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Comparison of the Available Methods of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics

Belojević

2018

Defence Against Bioterrorism

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A New Method of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak origin in China in 2019 using differentiation method for unusual epidemiological events

Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak origin in China in 2019 using differentiation method for unusual epidemiological events

Analysis of Escherichia Coli O104:H4 Outbreak in Germany in 2011 Using Differentiation Method for Unusual Epidemiological Events

Comparison of the Available Methods of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics

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