A New Method of Exercising Pandemic Preparedness Through an Interactive Simulation and Visualization

Abstract

As seen in the spring 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak, influenza pandemics can have profound social, legal and economic effects. This experience has also made the importance of public health preparedness exercises more evident. Universities face unique challenges with respect to pandemic preparedness due to their dense student populations, location within the larger community and frequent student/faculty international travel. Depending on the social structure of the community, different mitigation strategies should be applied for decreasing the severity and transmissibility of the disease. To this end, Arizona State University has developed a simulation model and tabletop exercise that facilitates decision-maker interactions around emergency-response scenarios. This simulation gives policy makers the ability to see the real-time impact of their decisions. Therefore, tabletop exercises with computer simulations are developed to practice these decisions, which can possibly give opportunities for practicing better policy implementations. This paper introduces a new method of designing and performing table-top exercises for pandemic influenza via state-of-the-art technologies including system visualization and group decision making with a supporting simulation model. The presented exercise methodology can increase readiness for a pandemic through the support of computer and information technologies and the survey results that we include in this paper certainly support this result. The video scenarios and the computer simulation model make the exercise appear very compelling and real, which makes this presented method of exercising different than the other table-top exercises in the literature. Finally, designing a pandemic preparedness exercise with supporting technologies can help identifying the communication gaps between responsible authorities and advance the table-top exercising methodology.

How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19

“…School closures for primary and secondary schools have the same goals, but generally do not have to be concerned about having students on campus after classes are suspended or moved to an online format, with the possible exception of boarding schools. On the other hand, there are some different challenges, including the impacts of alternative education delivery services and the impacts on both students and their parents (Araz et al, 2012;Araz et al, 2013). In the US, children from low income families are eligible to receive free lunches and when schools are closed they may miss meals.…”

“…In places, we have identified decision areas where modelling could support the mitigation phase by considering developing models for stress testing of operational readiness. This is envisaged as model-based game playing by decision-makerswar games (see Araz et al, 2012). It is also important for the models to be created during the mitigation phase because managers would not have much time to engage in model building activities when they are busy dealing with a crisis.…”

The importance of widespread testing for COVID-19 pandemic: systems thinking for drive-through testing sites

“…This presented framework can be developed and embedded into a simulation -visualisation architecture which can then be used to test emergency scenarios, design plans and train decision-makers in the planning process (Araz, Jehn et al, 2012). These types of exercises not only improve public health decision-making, but also increase confidence in performing key capabilities required to address a pandemic .…”

Themes and correlations of participant experience and evaluation of an interactive bioterrorism release exercise – a mixed methods study

“…Scenario simulations commonly use diseases, such as influenza, that reflect the most concern regarding social and economic impact, but relatively modest mortality and morbidity compared to diseases such as security sensitive bioterrorism agents (7)(8). Despite the generalisable nature of most pandemic responses, these often fail to take account of the broader impacts of a pandemic scenario (7,9) or the potential for an event involving a pathogen of greater transmissibility and severity. Additionally, the considerable logistical challenges likely to be faced in a pandemic, (10) such as impacts on civil infrastructure and society, are often considered superficially (11).…”