A New Model for Nowcasting the Aviation Radiation Environment With Comparisons to In Situ Measurements During GLEs

Abstract

Significant increases to the atmospheric radiation environment are recorded by a network of ground level neutron monitors as ground level enhancements (GLEs). These space weather phenomena pose a risk to aviation via single event effects in aircraft electronics and ionizing dose to passengers and crew. Under the UK Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modeling and Risk programme, we have developed a new model to provide nowcasts of the aviation radiation environment, including both the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) background and during GLE events. The Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Effects (MAIRE+) uses multiple data sources to characterize primary GCR and GLE particle spectra and combines these with precalculated geomagnetic and atmospheric response matrices to predict particle fluxes from ground level to 20 km altitude across the entire globe. Two European neutron monitors (located at Oulu in Finland and Dourbes in Belgium) are used as the primary indicators of GLE intensity in order to maximize accuracy over UK airspace. Outputs from MAIRE+ for the historical GLEs in September and October 1989 are compared to recalibrated empirical data from a solid‐state detector that was carried on Concorde in that period. The model will be hosted in the UK and will provide additional capability to the Met Office Space Weather Operations Center (MOSWOC).

Analysis of the Ground Level Enhancement GLE 60 on 15 April 2001, and Its Space Weather Effects: Comparison With Dosimetric Measurements

“…Over the years several models for computation of the exposure at flight altitudes have been developed (e.g., Copeland, 2017; Ferrari et al., 2001; Hands et al., 2022; Latocha et al., 2009; Mertens et al., 2013). While the models agree well for the assessment of the exposure due to GCRs (for details see Bottollier‐Depois et al., 2009; Yang & Sheu, 2020, and references therein), during GLEs, when the exposure is a superposition of the contributions of GCRs and SEPs, a significant difference between the models was reported (for details see Bütikofer & Flückiger, 2013, 2015).…”

“…The Easter event, that is, GLE # 60, was notable because the exposure was measured during the PRG‐JFK flight by a mobile dosimetric unit (MDU) Liulin device, (see the details in Spurny & Dachev, 2001; Beck et al., 2009). It is important to note that GLE # 60 is not the only GLE to have dosimetric measurements taken during the event (e.g., Hands et al., 2022), future work is planned to compare a full‐chain analysis and our model with the direct measurements obtained during these other events. The MDU Liulin is based on a silicon semiconductor detector, which measures the deposited energy and the amount of interacting particles, that is the dose rate in silicon and particle flux (for details see Dachev et al., 2011) and references therein).…”

“…In order to assess the important space weather threat of an enhanced radiation field in the atmosphere caused by increases in SEPs, namely the exposure to radiation (ambient dose and/or effective dose) of for example, aircrews and frequent travellers (Miroshnichenko, 2018), henceforth exposure, it is necessary to possess reliable information of the SEP spectra, used as an input in most of the radiation models (e.g., Banjac et al., 2019; Bütikofer et al., 2008; Hands et al., 2022; Matthiä et al., 2018). However, GLEs are usually analyzed using different models, assumptions, and methods resulting in up to an order of magnitude differences in assessment of space weather effects related to GLEs, specifically the exposure, that are non‐tolerable by the community (e.g., Bütikofer & Flückiger, 2013, 2015; A. Mishev & Jiggens, 2019).…”

Air Traffic Flow Management Delay Prediction Based on Feature Extraction and an Optimization Algorithm

“…Wiliams [10] and James [11] et al have carried out a number of studies on coronal mass ejections (CMEs), proving that CMEs are the largest rapid ejection phenomenon in the solar atmosphere and the main source of disturbance for space weather. These disturbances may affect the high-frequency radio wave communications that are used by the aviation industry [12], affect the normal operation of global navigation satellite systems [13,14], and even cause increased radiation that endangers the health of flight crews and passengers [15,16]. When encountering unusual space weather, airlines respond to these threats with measures such as cancelling flight plans, lowering flight altitudes, and changing flight routes, thereby resulting in additional fuel consumption [15,16].…”

“…These disturbances may affect the high-frequency radio wave communications that are used by the aviation industry [12], affect the normal operation of global navigation satellite systems [13,14], and even cause increased radiation that endangers the health of flight crews and passengers [15,16]. When encountering unusual space weather, airlines respond to these threats with measures such as cancelling flight plans, lowering flight altitudes, and changing flight routes, thereby resulting in additional fuel consumption [15,16]. In addition, when the timing of space weather affects the normal operation of satellite navigation, aircraft must use ground navigation instead of satellite navigation, which leads to higher standards for aircraft separation and lower airspace capacity, resulting in increased flight delays, increased costs, and other problems [12][13][14].…”