Moreover, the contraction of the outer eyewall near the end of an ERC can sometimes lead to a rapid intensification to result in a more intense TC than that prior to the ERC. Because of the dramatic intensity and structure changes associated with ERC and its frequent occurrence, the motivation to understand and forecast this phenomenon has remained high for decades. As will be reviewed in the next section, due to its intricate nature, the most basic question about ERC is still open: What are the leading physical mechanisms that control the formation of the secondary eyewall and the demise of the primary eyewall? Advancing our understanding of ERC and addressing various scientific issues associated with ERC are the goals and motivation of this dissertation research.
Current understanding of ERCA complete theory of the ERC requires physical explanations of the formation of the secondary eyewall and the subsequent demise of the primary eyewall. A review of current understanding of these two ERC components is presented below.
Secondary Eyewall Formation (SEF)Over the years, extensive research on SEF and ERC has yielded many hypotheses on SEF but some of them are now abandoned according to the recent studies, for example, the topographic forcing (Hawkins 1983), the asymmetric friction due to storm motion If the pattern of tendencies were to persist for some time, then, a secondary maximum of tangential wind would form near the source radius and surrounding the original RMW.This mechanism may explain how an outer concentric eyewall can form and eventually replace the inner eyewall. In a recent study, Rozoff et al. (2012) evaluated the pioneering theoretical analysis of SW82 using the data generated from a full physics simulation of a real TC. They showed that the sustained azimuthal-mean latent heating outside the primary eyewall eventually leads to SEF facilitated by a broadening wind field, which enhances not only the frictional inflow but the inertial stability as well. Their result ultimately confirms that the SEF mechanism of SW82, which was obtained in a much simpler framework, is still relevant in a complicated realistic TC environment.The importance of diabatic heating to SEF is also emphasized by a number of other studies. Using cloud resolving simulations of real TCs, Judt and Chen (2010) showed that the high potential vorticity (PV) generation and accumulation from the convective activities in the rainbands in the incipient outer eyewall region play a key role in SEF. Moon and Nolan (2010) demonstrated that the diabatic heating resulted from convective and stratiform precipitation in outer rainbands can induce a secondary wind maximum.They argued that the accelerated tangential wind can wrap around the entire vortex if the diabatic heating lasts long enough, which could lead to SEF. Wang (2009) However, for a secondary eyewall with a large radius, the "cut-off" process appears to be inefficient, which cannot explain the observed pace of eyewall replacement.(b) Subsidence over the inner eyewall induced by...