A new process-based model for predicting autumn phenology: How is leaf senescence controlled by photoperiod and temperature coupling?

Lang, Weiguang; Chen, Xiaoqiu; Qian, Siwei; Liu, Guohua; Piao, Shilong

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.006

Cited by 94 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…In this way, precipitation becomes the most important influencing factor of autumn phenology in alpine grassland. Regarding the role of preseason temperature, although some studies reported opposite effects of daily maximum and minimum temperatures on autumn phenology [11,23], our research confirmed that daily minimum temperature has stronger and more extensive influences on alpine grassland senescence rather than daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature (Figure 4), which supports the process-based modelling of ground-observed herbaceous autumn phenology in the research region [26].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…This implies that the control of preseason precipitation on autumn phenology is stronger at arid than at humid locations. Therefore, to more precisely predict QTP alpine grassland senescence dates under future climate change scenarios, precipitation effects should be added into existing process-based autumn phenology models coupling photoperiod and temperature [26]. Finally, it should be noted that the evaluation of satellite-derived phenology is always challenging because field-based observations are generally insufficient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data include the daily minimum/maximum/mean air temperature, daily precipitation, daily sunshine duration, daily mean relative humidity, and daily mean/maximum wind speed from 2000 to 2015 at 91 stations in alpine grasslands ( Figure 2). Meteorological stations are located at elevations ranging from 1583.3 to 4900 m. [26]. A, B, C, and D represent humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions, respectively.…”

Section: Phenological and Metrological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation and Minimum Temperature are Primary Climatic Controls of Alpine Grassland Autumn Phenology on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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Autumn phenology is a crucial indicator for identifying the alpine grassland growing season’s end date on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which intensely controls biogeochemical cycles in this ecosystem. Although autumn phenology is thought to be mainly influenced by the preseason temperature, precipitation, and insolation in alpine grasslands, the relative contributions of these climatic factors on the QTP remain uncertain. To quantify the impacts of climatic factors on autumn phenology, we built stepwise linear regression models for 91 meteorological stations on the QTP using in situ herb brown-off dates, remotely sensed autumn phenological metrics, and a multi-factor climate dataset during an optimum length period. The results show that autumn precipitation has the most extensive influence on interannual variation in alpine grassland autumn phenology. On average, a 10 mm increase in autumn precipitation during the optimum length period may lead to a delay of 0.2 to 4 days in the middle senescence date (P < 0.05) across the alpine grasslands. The daily minimum air temperature is the second most important controlling factor, namely, a 1 °C increase in the mean autumn minimum temperature during the optimum length period may induce a delay of 1.6 to 9.3 days in the middle senescence date (P < 0.05) across the alpine grasslands. Sunshine duration is the third extensive controlling factor. However, its influence is spatially limited. Moreover, the relative humidity and wind speed also have strong influences at a few stations. Further analysis indicates that the autumn phenology at stations with less autumn precipitation is more sensitive to precipitation variation than at stations with more autumn precipitation. This implies that autumn drought in arid regions would intensely accelerate the leaf senescence of alpine grasslands. This study suggests that precipitation should be considered for improving process-based autumn phenology models in QTP alpine grasslands.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Phenological and Metrological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation and Minimum Temperature are Primary Climatic Controls of Alpine Grassland Autumn Phenology on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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“…2; Robson et al 2013) and at the stage at which 50% of the trees’ leaves had changed color from green to yellow (stage 3; Fig. 2; (Lang et al 2019)). We calculated the GSL for each tree as the number of days between the estimated dates of BB and LS (Estiarte and Peñuelas 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent meta-analysis showed that summer and autumn temperatures, precipitation and photoperiod can all affect LS (Gill et al 2015). Generally, temperature tends to be predominant at lower latitudes (Pudas et al 2008; Lang et al 2019), whereas photoperiod is more important at higher latitudes (Soolanayakanahally et al 2013; Lang et al 2019) (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greater capacity to exploit warming temperatures in northern populations of European beech is partly driven by delayed leaf senescence

Gárate‐Escamilla

Brelsford

Hampe

et al. 2019

Preprint

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One of the most widespread consequences of climate change is the disruption of trees’ phenological cycles. The extent to which tree phenology varies with local climate is largely genetically determined, and while a combination of temperature and photoperiodic cues are typically found to trigger bud burst (BB) in spring, it has proven harder to identify the main cues driving leaf senescence (LS) in autumn. We used 925 individual field-observations of BB and LS from six Fagus sylvatica provenances, covering the range of environmental conditions found across the species distribution, to: (i) estimate the dates of BB and LS of these provenances; (ii) assess the main drivers of LS; and (iii) predict the likely variation in the growing season length (GSL; defined by BB and LS timing) across populations under current and future climate scenarios. To this end, we first calibrated linear mixed-effects models for LS as a function of temperature, insolation and BB date. Secondly, we calculated the GSL for each provenance as the number of days between BB and LS. We found that: i) there were larger differences among provenances in the date of LS than in the date of BB; ii) the temperature through September, October and November was the main determinant of LS in beech, although covariation of temperature with daily insolation and precipitation-related variables suggests that all three variables may affect LS timing; and iii) GSL was predicted to increase in northern beech provenances and to shrink in populations from the core and the southern range under climate change. Consequently, the large differences in GSL across beech range in the present climate are likely to decrease under future climates where rising temperatures will alter the relationship between BB and LS, with northern populations increasing productivity by extending their growing season to take advantage of warmer conditions.

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Climate‐driven shifts in leaf senescence are greater for boreal species than temperate species in the Acadian Forest region in contrast to leaf emergence shifts

Spafford

MacDougall

Steenberg³

2023

Ecology and Evolution

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The Acadian Forest Region is a temperate‐boreal transitional zone in eastern North America which provides a unique opportunity for understanding the potential effects of climate change on both forest types. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle changes, is an important indicator of the biological effects of climate change, which can be observed with stationary timelapse cameras known as phenocams. Using four growing seasons of observations for the species Acer rubrum (red maple), Betula papyrifera (paper/white birch) and Abies balsamea (balsam fir) from the Acadian Phenocam Network as well as multiple growing season observations from the North American PhenoCam Network we parameterized eight leaf emergence and six leaf senescence models for each species which span a range in process and driver representation. With climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) we simulated future leaf emergence, senescence and season length (senescence minus emergence) for these species at sites within the Acadian Phenocam Network. Model performances were similar across models and leaf emergence model RMSE ranged from about 1 to 2 weeks across species and models, while leaf senescence model RMSE ranged from about 2 to 4 weeks. The simulations suggest that by the late 21st century, leaf senescence may become continuously delayed for boreal species like Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea, though remain relatively stable for temperate species like Acer rubrum. In contrast, the projected advancement in leaf emergence was similar across boreal and temperate species. This has important implications for carbon uptake, nutrient resorption, ecology and ecotourism for the Acadian Forest Region. More work is needed to improve predictions of leaf phenology for the Acadian Forest Region, especially with respect to senescence. Phenocams have the potential to rapidly advance process‐based model development and predictions of leaf phenology in the context of climate change.

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A new process-based model for predicting autumn phenology: How is leaf senescence controlled by photoperiod and temperature coupling?

Cited by 94 publications

References 63 publications

Precipitation and Minimum Temperature are Primary Climatic Controls of Alpine Grassland Autumn Phenology on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Precipitation and Minimum Temperature are Primary Climatic Controls of Alpine Grassland Autumn Phenology on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Greater capacity to exploit warming temperatures in northern populations of European beech is partly driven by delayed leaf senescence

Climate‐driven shifts in leaf senescence are greater for boreal species than temperate species in the Acadian Forest region in contrast to leaf emergence shifts

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