A new stochastic approach to the spread of environmental events enhanced by the wind

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a stochastic approach of the expansion of adverse environmental events which are enhanced by the wind. Our model follows a scheme based on the well‐known Susceptible‐Infected‐Recovered (SIR) model. The expansion takes place in a grid where the cells represent an individual (or even a group) in the population under study. The state of the cells is modeled by a random variable which is a measure of the intensity and direction of the wind. As time passes, the status of the cells is determined according to both an update criterion and a probabilistic neighborhood relationship. In addition, in building the expansion model, we have defined a set of adjustable parameters, which will have an effect on the rate of propagation of the phenomenon.