A new strong convective precipitation forecasting method based on attention mechanism and spatio-temporal reasoning

Abstract

Radar observation variables reflect the precipitation amount of strong convective precipitation processes, which accurate forecast is an important difficulty in weather forecasting. Current forecasting methods are mostly based on radar echo extrapolation, which has the insufficiency of input information and the ineffectiveness of model architecture. This paper presents a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory forecasting method for strong convective precipitation based on the attention mechanism and residual neural network (ResNet-Attention-BiLSTM). First, this paper uses ResNet to effectively extract the key information of extreme weather and solves the problem of regression to the mean of the prediction model by learning the residuals of the radar observation data. Second, this paper uses the attention mechanism to adaptively weight the fusion of the features to enhance the extraction of the important features of the precipitation image data. On this basis, this paper presents a novel spatio-temporal reasoning method for radar observations and establishes a precipitation forecasting model, which captures the past and future time-order relationship of the sequence data. Finally, this paper conducts experiments based on the real collected data of a strong convective precipitation process and compares its performance with the existing models, the mean absolute percentage error of this model was reduced by 15.94% (1km), 18.72% (3km), and 14.91% (7km), and the prediction accuracy (R2) was increased by 10.89% (1km), 9.61% (3km), and 9.29% (7km), which proves the state of the art and effectiveness of this forecasting model.