A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

Islam, Md. Rezuanul; Lee, Chia‐Ying; Mandli, Kyle T.; Takagi, Hiroshi

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95825-7

Cited by 14 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…An important assumption that underlies our analysis is that we only consider climatic changes and do not account for changes in mean sea level that originate from different extents of polar ice sheets and from steric processes. The generation of a storm surge is influenced by changes in bathymetry; coastal geometry; and geomorphic features P. Scussolini et al: Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial such as river deltas, barrier islands and bays, which all interact and can modulate the height of the storm surge (Islam et al, 2021). Moreover, storm surges are influenced by variations in water depth as well as the sea-air momentum exchange, and as such they can be modulated by non-linear interaction effects with tides and waves (Idier et al, 2019).…”

Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

et al. 2023

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Abstract. The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.

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Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

et al. 2023

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“…Similarly, the literature provides a range of metrics that can be used to characterize hazards possess by a TC. For example, SSHWS for wind hazard (Saffir 1973), the extreme rain multiplier by Bosma et al (2020), and storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) by Islam et al (2021b). As Bangladesh has experienced significant loss and damage from storm surge events in the past (Needham et al 2015;Takagi et al 2023), we employed SSHPI as a primary hazard metric in this study to explore the statistical association between surge hazard and loss/damage.…”

Section: Tc Activity and Potential Hazard Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the SSHPI considers TC landfall location sensitivity, coastal geometry (open coasts and bays) and regional scale bathymetry. These meteorological and geometrical variables are incorporated into a single measure of the expected surge hazard potential along the coast (Islam et al 2021b(Islam et al , 2023. The JTWC best track data, particularly during landfall, was used to calculate the SSHPI for each selected TC.…”

Section: Tc Activity and Potential Hazard Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures

Islam¹

2023

Preprint

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Tropical cyclone (TC) disaster risk has likely increased in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 21st century. It is primarily due to the cumulative impact of rising coastal exposures such as population, insufficient funding to address disaster risks, and ineffective utilization of century-old early warning signals for TC. From 2000 to 2020, the average number of people affected by a Category 1–2 TC (according to Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) was 3.18 million, representing a 28.91% increase from the average reported during 1979–1999. Moreover, the past two decades have witnessed a staggering 69.83% of all TC-induced disasters, and with the exception of Chattogram, all coastal districts have seen a rise in the number of TC disasters. Notably, the frequency of TCs and meteorological trends, which remain relatively constant over time, cannot account for either the size of the affected population or the number of TC-related disasters reported at the sub-national level. During 2000–2013, roughly 67% of the disaster management budget was provided by foreign and humanitarian aid, and a significant funding gap was observed during major TC disasters, such as TC Sidr in 2007. Our findings also suggest that the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) tends to issue higher levels of warnings irrespective of the intensity and potential hazard of a TC, which may have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate in recent years. However, there is a growing concern that this approach may lead to an emerging type of TC disaster risk, where people may start to disregard the warnings due to their perceived lack of credibility.

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“…The bathymetry of the target region was obtained from the Japan Oceanographic Data Center (52). The effectiveness of the SSHPI for predicting peak surge hazard potential was discussed in Islam et al (51). A brief definition is provided in the SI appendix.…”

Section: Storm Surge Hazard Potential Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

Islam¹,

Satoh²,

Sawada³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Variability in storminess, storm surge, and mean sea level (MSL) can substantially alter coastal hazards associated with extreme sea levels (ESL). However, detection and attribution of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) and related storm surge activity are hampered by inhomogeneous TC records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in storm surge levels in Japan from 1980–2019, a period when observational platforms including tide gauges and storm records are highly consistent. The analyses illustrate statistical evidence of increasing surge annual maxima in several places including the bay area of Tokyo since 1980 and this rate of change is comparable to those observed for MSL rise over the same period. These findings contrast the current hypothesis on the flood adaptation plan in which future surge extremes will remain the same. We demonstrate that the change in surge annual maxima reflects the combined effect of a consistent northeastward shifting of TC landfall location, intensifying and widening of TC. The substantial influence of these TC meteorological variables on surge levels coupled with MSL rise over long periods suggests that current coastal planning practices including critical heights for flood defenses, might be inadequate in the future.

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A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

Cited by 14 publications

References 50 publications

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

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