A nomogram for clinical estimation of acute biliary pancreatitis risk among patients with symptomatic gallstones: A retrospective case-control study

Guo, Xiaoyu; Li, Yilong; Lin, Hui; Cheng, Long; Huang, Zijian; Lin, Zhitao; Mao, Ning; Sun, Bei; Wang, Gang; Tang, Qiushi

doi:10.3389/fcimb.2022.935927

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Previous studies have demonstrated that age is not only closely associated with the incidence of AP but also serves as an independent risk factor for AP mortality. 18 , 19 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

Gao,

Xu,

et al. 2024

JIR

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Purpose Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal emergency. Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop organ failure, which is significantly associated with adverse outcomes. This study aimed to establish an early prediction model for persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis patients using 24-hour admission indicators. Patients and Methods Clinical data and 24-h laboratory indicators of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from January 1, 2017 to January 1, 2022 in Shanxi Bethune Hospital were collected. Patients from 2017 to 2021 were used as the training cohort to establish the prediction model, and patients from 2021 to 2022 were used as the validation cohort. Univariate logistic regression and LASSO regression were used to establish prediction models. The performance of the model was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and subsequently validated in the validation group. Results A total of 1166 patients with acute pancreatitis were included, a total of 145 patients suffered from persistent organ failure from 2017 to 2021. Data were initially selected for 100 variables, and after inclusion and exclusion, 46 variables were used for further analysis. Two prediction models were established and nomogram was drawn respectively. After comparison, the prediction values of the two models were similar (The univariate model AUC was 0.867, 95% CI (0.834–0.9). The LASSO model AUC was 0.864, 95% CI (0.828–0.895)), and the model established by LASSO regression was more parsimonious. A web calculator was developed using the model established by LASSO. Conclusion Predictive model including 6 risk indicators can be used to predict the risk of persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis.

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“…Previous studies have demonstrated that age is not only closely associated with the incidence of AP but also serves as an independent risk factor for AP mortality. 18 , 19 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

Gao,

Xu,

et al. 2024

JIR

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“…Acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) is the most common type of AP, accounting for approximately 40% of AP cases [ 6 ] and has a mortality rate ranging from 5% to 20% [ 7 ]. Risk factors for ABP include female gender, age over 70 years, and the presence of gallstones smaller than 5 mm [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and disease severity in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis

Yang,

He,

Wang

2024

Annals of Medicine

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Background The neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHR) is independently associated with the severity of various diseases. However, its association with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) remains unknown. Methods This study included 1335 eligible patients diagnosed with ABP from April 2016 to December 2022. Patients were divided into low- and high-NHR level groups using an optimal cut-off value determined utilizing Youden’s index. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the correlation between NHR and ABP severity. Multivariate analysis-based limited restricted cubic spline (RCS) method was used to evaluate the nonlinear relationship between NHR and the risk of developing moderate or severe ABP. Results In this study, multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated an independent association between NHR and ABP severity ( p < .001). The RCS analysis showed a linear correlation between NHR and the risk of developing moderate or severe ABP (P for non-linearity > 0.05), and increased NHR was found to be independently associated with a more severe form of the disease. Conclusions Our study suggests that NHR is a simple and practical independent indicator of disease severity, serving as a potential novel predictor for patients with ABP.

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“…The condition takes place when the bile acids to cholesterol ratio is disturbed to abnormal levels. [6][7] One of the most common primary bile acids are cholic acid and chenodeoxycholic acid that are called as the precursor of cholesterol. The primary bile acids undergo conversion into secondary and tertiary bile acids by the intestinal microbiota through hydroxylation and deconjugation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The predictive validity of serum biochemical markers in case of acute biliary pancreatitis.

Adnan Riaz,

Sumera Saghir,

Roomana Anwar

et al. 2024

TPMJ

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Objective: To analyze the detection validity of serum biochemical markers in the suspicion of acute biliary disease. Study Design: Retrospective study. Setting: Department of Biochemistry, Islam Teaching Hospital, Sialkot. Period: January 2023 till June 2023. Methods: In a retrospective analysis of 70 patients, there were 35 patients suffering from acute biliary pancreatitis and 35 patients were suffering from non-biliary pancreatitis in group A and B respectively. The patients were identified based on high serum amylase levels. Age, gender, and history were examined, and patients with persistent abdominal pain and abnormal amylase levels were included. Computed tomography detected gallstones, and patients with chronic liver issues were excluded. Results: Comparative analysis conducted using Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests in SPSS 15.0. A significant result was defined as a P value under 0.005. The sample collection was done from Islam teaching hospital Sialkot and the study was conducted at biochemistry lab of Islam medical college Sialkot. Conclusion: The study, involving 70 patients, aimed to predict acute biliary pancreatitis using serum biochemical markers. The two groups, one with acute biliary pancreatitis and other non-biliary, showed significant differences in key markers (total bilirubin, ALT, direct bilirubin, ALP, AST and serum amylase). These findings suggest the potential diagnostic relevance of these markers.

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A nomogram for clinical estimation of acute biliary pancreatitis risk among patients with symptomatic gallstones: A retrospective case-control study

Cited by 9 publications

References 27 publications

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

Association between neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and disease severity in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis

The predictive validity of serum biochemical markers in case of acute biliary pancreatitis.

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