A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) pancreatic body tail cancer: a SEER-based study

Abstract

Objective Pancreatic body tail carcinoma (PBTC) is a relatively few pancreatic cancer in clinical practice, and its specific clinicopathological features and prognosis have not been fully described. In this study, we aimed to create a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced PBTC. Methods We extracted clinical and related prognostic data of advanced PBTC patients from 2000 to 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Independent prognostic factors were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, and a nomogram was constructed using R software. The C-index, area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram. Finally, OS was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results A total of 1256 patients with advanced PBTC were eventually included in this study. Age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were identified as independent risk factors using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses (p < 0.05). In the training cohort, the calibration index of the nomogram was 0.709, while the AUC values of the nomogram, age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were 0.777, 0.562, 0.621, 0.5, 0.576, 0.632, and 0.323, respectively. Meanwhile, in the validation cohort, the AUC values of the nomogram, age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were 0.772, 0.551, 0.629, 0.534, 0.577, 0.606, and 0.639, respectively. Good agreement of the model in the training and validation cohorts was demonstrated in the calibration and DCA curves. Univariate survival analysis showed a statistically significant effect of age, grade, M stage, and surgery on prognosis (p < 0.05). Conclusion Age, grade, M stage, and surgery were independently associated with OS, and the established nomogram was a visual tool to effectively predict OS in advanced PBTC patients.

Global burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2019, with projections of mortality to 2030

“…Additionally, pancreatic cancer is typically a disease of older people. Age is one of the most important risks for pancreatic cancer [ 26 ]. As the survival for pancreatic cancer improves, the number of pancreatic cancer deaths has increased [ 10 ].…”

Nomogram for predicting the preoperative lymph node metastasis in resectable pancreatic cancer

“…Yi-Nan Shen et al constructs a nomogram for predicting the peripancreatic vein invasion in pancreatic head cancer patients. Additionally, the other tumor sites of PC such as the body and tail of the pancreas also occur lymphatic metastasis (Shi et al 2022 ; Tanaka et al 2022 , 2020 ), and a model for predicting the status of LNM in those tumor sites of PC is in need. The nomogram model constructed in our study could satisfy this requirement.…”

Prognostic Predicting Model of Pancreatic Body Tail Carcinoma Using Clinical and CT Radiomic Data

“…Radscore1/2/3 represented the preoperative CT image texture parameters, which can tell the nature of the tumor, and thus is valuable for recurrence prediction. 17 , 23 , 27 And based on the combined model, a new nomogram was created. We also found that when R2 (radscore2) ≥ 6, the tumor's boundaries become blurred, the enhancement pattern changes, tissue density increases, ischemic necrosis increases, and so on.…”

“…The combined model has higher prediction efficiency than the previously reported nomogram clinical models (AUC: 0.976 vs 0.777). 27 This may be related to the combination of clinical, pathological, and CT imaging parameters and the acquisition of information about the nature of the tumor. The combined model is helpful for the treatment and management of PBTC and improves the life quality of patients, receiving clinical recognition.…”