A Nomogram for Prediction of Risk Factors for Preeclampsia during Antenatal Care at a Tertiary Maternity Hospital

Abstract

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are one of the leading causes of maternal and infant morbidity and mortality. Worldwide, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy affect 5-10% of all pregnancies and cause approximately 50,000 deaths among women every year [1]. The incidence of preeclampsia (PE) is influenced by parity, racial, genetic predisposition, and environmental factors may also have a role. The incidence of PE varies greatly worldwide. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the incidence of PE to be seven times higher in developing countries (2.8% of live births) than in developed countries (0.4%) which is due to poor health-seeking behaviours and un-availability of health care facilities and personnel [2,3].Maternal mortality due to PE varies between (2-30%) and is much higher in rural areas. In Egypt, the prevalence of PE is (10.7%) in a community-based study while, in hospital-based studies ranged from (9.1-12.5%) of all deliveries [1,4,5].Prevention of PE may be primary, secondary. Primary prevention involves avoiding pregnancy in women at high risk for PE, modifying lifestyles or improving nutrients intake in the whole AbstractObjective: The study aims to create a nomogram for prediction of risk factors for preeclampsia (PE) during antenatal care (ANC) in a tertiary maternity hospital. Materials and Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted between May 2016 and December 2017 in a tertiary maternity hospital. Two hundred thirty pregnant women were included, at first visit, personal data, family history of risk factors for PE, maternal medical, and obstetric history was collected. Physical examination, including blood pressure, weight, signs of edema, and urine analysis were done. Then follow up at 24 weeks and after 32 weeks gestation to know if she developed PE or not through the physician. Included nomogram, which was built based on the data of regression analysis, was used to predict the value of one or more responses from a set of predictors. Results:The study included 230 women. Cases diagnosed with PE during all the follow up are 37 cases (16.1%). Five factors were not significant; maternal age (P=0.154, OR=1.076), consanguinity (P=0.821, OR=1.104), age at marriage (P=0.266, OR=1.404), age at first pregnancy (P=0.319, OR=0.735) and order of pregnancy (3rd or more) (P=0.951, OR=0.984). Only two factors significant; a history of diabetes mellitus (P=0.010, OR=5.923) and history of hypertension (P=0.045, OR=7.838). Probability of PE based on the finding of the nomogram was 68% with good discrimination. Conclusion:History of diabetes mellitus and hypertension were the predictors in the final model among pregnant women for the development of preeclampsia.