A nomogram prediction model for the TP53mut subtype in endometrial cancer based on preoperative noninvasive parameters

Abstract

Background The molecular subtypes of endometrial carcinoma are significantly correlated with survival outcomes and can guide surgical methods and postoperative adjuvant therapy. Among them, the TP53mut subtype has the worst prognosis and can only be determined by detection after surgery. Therefore, identifying preoperative noninvasive clinical parameters for early prediction of the TP53mut subtype would provide important guidance in choosing the appropriate surgical method and early warning for clinicians. Our study aimed to establish a model for the early prediction of the TP53mut subtype by using preoperative noninvasive parameters of endometrial cancer and screen out potential TP53mut patients. Methods Information and pathological specimens of 376 patients who underwent surgery for FIGO stage I-IV endometrial cancer in the Department of Gynecology, Peking University Cancer Hospital, from June 2011 to July 2020 were collected, and 178 cases were finally included in the study as the training dataset (part A). Thirty-six cases from January 2022 to March 2023 were collected as the validation dataset (part B). Molecular subtyping was performed using a one-stop next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach. Compared with the TP53mut subtype, the POLE EDM, MSI-H and TP53 wild-type subtypes were defined as non-TP53mut subtypes. Univariate Cox regression analysis and multivariate logistic analysis were performed to determine the preoperative clinical parameters associated with the TP53mut subtype. A nomogram prediction model was established using preoperative noninvasive parameters, and its efficacy in predicting TP53mut subtype and survival outcomes was verified. Results The TP53mut subtype was identified in 12.4% of the part A and 13.9% of the part B. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HDL-C/LDL-C level, CA125 level, and cervical or lower uterine involvement were independent influencing factors associated with the TP53mut subtype (p = 0.016, 0.047, <0.001). A TP53mut prognostic model (TPMM) was constructed based on the factors identified in the multivariate analysis, namely, TPMM = -1.385 × HDL-C/LDL-C + 1.068 × CA125 + 1.89 × CI or LUI, with an AUC = 0.768 (95% CI, 0.642 to 0.893) in the part A. The AUC of TPMM for predicting TP53mut subtype in the part B was 0.781(95% CI, 0.581 to 0.980). The progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with the TP53mut subtype were significantly worse than those of patients with the non-TP53mut subtype, as predicted by the model in the part A. Conclusions TP53mut prediction model (TPMM) had good diagnostic accuracy, and survival analysis showed the model can identify patients with different prognostic risk.