A nonparametric stochastic method for generating daily climate-adjusted streamflows

Stagge, James H.; Moglen, Glenn E.

doi:10.1002/wrcr.20448

Cited by 22 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Land cover is used in hydrologic models to set parameters such as impervious cover, leaf area, and rooting depth that influence the partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration and runoff (De Roo et al ; Calder ; Costa et al ; Wang et al ). Hydrologic models are driven by climate data, such as precipitation and temperature, to establish the water inputs, either as rain or snow, and the potential evapotranspiration output (Easterling et al ; Teutschbein and Seibert ; Stagge and Moglen ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reduced Soil Macropores and Forest Cover Reduce Warm‐Season Baseflow below Ecological Thresholds in the Upper Delaware River Basin

Endreny

Kwon²,

Williamson

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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We examined the impacts of changes in land cover and soil conditions on the flow regime of the upper Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources. We simulated flows for two periods, c. 1600 and 1940, at three sites using the same temperature and precipitation conditions: the East Branch, West Branch, and mainstem Delaware River at Callicoon, New York. The 1600 period represented pristine forest and soils. The 1940 period included reduced forest cover, increased agriculture, and degraded soils with reduced soil macropore fractions. A model‐sensitivity test examined the impact of soil macropore and land cover change separately. We assessed changes in flow regimes between the 1600 and 1940 periods using a variety of flow statistics, including established ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) thresholds. Reduced forest soil macropore fraction significantly reduced summer and fall baseflows. The 1940 period had significantly lower Q50 flows (50% exceedance) than the 1600 period, as well as summer and fall Q90 and Q75–Q90 flows below the ELOHA thresholds. The one‐ to seven‐day minimum flows were also lower for the 1940 period, by 17% on the mainstem. 1940 flows were 6% more likely than the 1600 period to fall below the low‐flow threshold for federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) habitat. In contrast, the 1940 period had higher flows than the 1600 period from late fall to early winter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reduced Soil Macropores and Forest Cover Reduce Warm‐Season Baseflow below Ecological Thresholds in the Upper Delaware River Basin

Endreny

Kwon²,

Williamson

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…Water Resources Research the diurnal increments of the streamflow (Stagge & Moglen, 2013;Szilagyi et al, 2006). The shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated for each month from the observed diurnal increments of the streamflow.…”

Section: /2019wr025058mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multisite Daily Streamflow Simulation With Time Irreversibility

Mathai

Mujumdar

2019

Water Resources Research

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Synthetic daily streamflow generation requires a critical understanding of the underlying dynamics resulting from the inherent temporal asymmetry (time irreversibility) in the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph. Most models considering the time irreversibility deal with single-site streamflow simulation. Addressing intersite dependencies is, however, crucial for interconnected stream networks. This study presents a time irreversibility dynamics-based multisite streamflow generating framework to simulate concurrent streamflow sequences at multiple sites in a basin. This framework explicitly takes into account the spatial correlation and time irreversible dynamics of streamflow. To demonstrate the utility and applicability, a few selected streamflow gauging stations in the Godavari River Basin, located in southern India, are considered. The proposed framework shows the ability to adequately generate multisite simulations capturing at-site statistics as well as intersite correlations for the case study. Furthermore, the approach ensures that the simulated flow values are not merely resampled from the historical data, uses the physical features of the hydrograph, and shows variability beyond that observed in the historical sequence. Such a rich variety of streamflow sequences can help water managers to investigate how existing water resources systems on interconnected stream networks will operate in scenarios which have not been observed in the historical record.

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“…A further group of models consists of models that employ Markov chains and their variations. These models account for transition probabilities between different hydrological states (Stagge and Moglen, 2013;Bracken et al, 2014;Pender et al, 2015) and can be combined 20 with nonparametric approaches such as k-nearest neighbors (Prairie et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Borgomeo et al (2015) have shown how simulated annealing can be used to generate synthetic streamflow time sequences that represent possible climate-induced changes in user-specified streamflow properties. 30 All these previously mentioned models are based on the time domain. An alternative to time-domain models is frequencydomain models (Shumway and Stoffer, 2017), which allow for the simulation of surrogate data with the same Fourier spectra as the raw data (Theiler et al, 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization

Brunner¹,

Bàrdossy²,

Furrer³

2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Stochastically generated streamflow time series are widely used in water resource planning and management. Such series represent sets of plausible yet unobserved streamflow realizations which should reproduce the main characteristics of observed data. These characteristics include the distribution of daily streamflow values and their temporal correlation as expressed by short- and long-range dependence. Existing streamflow generation approaches have mainly focused on the time domain, even though simulation in the frequency domain provides good properties. These properties comprise the simulation of both short- and long-range dependence, as well as extension to multiple sites. Simulation in the frequency domain is based on the randomization of the phases of the Fourier transformation. We here combine phase randomization simulation with a flexible, four-parameter Kappa distribution, which allows for the extrapolation to yet unobserved low and high flows. The simulation approach consists of seven steps: 1) fitting the theoretical Kappa distribution, 2) normalization and deseasonalization, 3) Fourier transformation, 4) random phase generation, 5) inverse Fourier transformation, 6) back transformation, and 7) simulation. The simulation approach is applicable both to individual and multiple sites. It was applied to and validated on a set of four catchments in Switzerland. Our results show that the stochastic streamflow generator based on phase randomization produces realistic streamflow time series with respect to distributional properties and temporal correlation. However, cross-correlation among sites was in some cases found to be underestimated. The approach can be recommended as a flexible tool for various applications such as the dimensioning of reservoirs or the assessment of drought persistence.

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A nonparametric stochastic method for generating daily climate-adjusted streamflows

Cited by 22 publications

References 73 publications

Reduced Soil Macropores and Forest Cover Reduce Warm‐Season Baseflow below Ecological Thresholds in the Upper Delaware River Basin

Reduced Soil Macropores and Forest Cover Reduce Warm‐Season Baseflow below Ecological Thresholds in the Upper Delaware River Basin

Multisite Daily Streamflow Simulation With Time Irreversibility

Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization

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