A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought‐prone Amhara region of Ethiopia

Bewket, Woldeamlak; Conway, Declan

doi:10.1002/joc.1481

Cited by 232 publications

(188 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Precipitation trends in Ethiopia have been the subject of several studies, with sometimes contrasting conclusions (Conway 2000;Funk, Asfaw et al 2003;Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Bewket and Conway 2007;Shang, Yan et al 2011). In the data set used in this study, trend analysis indicates that rainfall in southern Ethiopia has decreased from 1971 till the present, both annually and in the northern hemisphere spring and summer seasons.…”

Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As pointed out by Bewket and Conway (2007), the use of different time periods in the analyses is most likely the main reason for discrepancies between trend studies in the central and northern highlands. The dry 1980s were followed by recovering rainfall in 1990s.…”

Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Farmers in northern Ethiopia claim to have shifted to more droughtresistant crops due to declining rainfall during the last couple of generations (Meze-Hausken 2004). However, there is little evidence for precipitation trends in this region, neither in seasonal precipitation amounts, nor in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (Meze-Hausken 2004;Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Bewket and Conway 2007). On the other hand, precipitation declines in southern and eastern Ethiopia have been documented, most strongly for the spring season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Funk, Dettinger et al 2008;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought-related famines in Ethiopia have been documented from 253 B.C. till the 1990s (Degefu 1987;Webb, Braun et al 1992;Webb and Braun 1994), and supplemented by precipitation studies for the last decades (Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Segele and Lamb 2005;Korecha and Barnston 2007;, as well as local and regional drought studies (Bewket and Conway 2007;Edossa, Babel et al 2010;Gebrehiwot, van der Veen et al 2011). But a regional and nation-wide comparison of the precipitation during different drought episodes is still missing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

379

273

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In 2011, drought in the Horn of Africa again made news headlines. This study aims to quantify the meteorological component of this and other drought episodes in Ethiopia since 1971. A monthly precipitation data set for 14 homogeneous rainfall zones was constructed based on 174 gauge observations. As a measure of drought, the Standardized Precipitation Index was calculated on seasonal, annual and biannual timescales for each zone. The results point to 2009 as a year of exceptionally widespread drought. All zones experienced some degree of drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. On the national level, 2009 was the second driest year in the period, surpassed only by the historic drought year 1984. Linear regression analysis indicates a general decline in precipitation in southern Ethiopia, during both February-May and June-September. In the central and northern highlands, the trend analysis did not provide evidence of similar tendencies. However, spring droughts have appeared more frequently in all parts of Ethiopia during the last 10-15 years than during the previous decades.

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Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

379

273

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Conducting investigations using standard statistical methodologies is an essential step in the development of climatology [13]. For instance, time series analysis is used in order to evaluate the temporal and spatial behavior of rainfall [14]. In this study a univariate Box-Jenkins Methods, in particular, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methods and spectral analysis and cross-spectral analysis are employed [15].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Long-term Pattern and its Extreme Event Frequency of Rainfall in Dire Dawa Region, Eastern Ethiopia

Solomon¹

2015

J Climatol Weather Forecasting

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Rainfall is the most critical and key variable both in atmospheric and hydrological cycle. Its patterns usually have spatial and temporal variability. Its variability is assumed to be the main cause for the frequently occurring climate extreme events such as drought and flood. In this study, spectrum analysis, cross-spectral analysis as well as seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model were used in intending to predict the pattern and its extreme event frequency of rainfall in Dire Dawa Region based on data obtained from Dire Dawa and adjacent stations: Dengego and Haramaya. The result indicated that the amount of rainfall at Dengego and Haramaya are more or less the same on average in all seasons and much higher than that of Dire Dawa during last 30 year study period. The variability of annual rainfall in Dire Dawa during the study period is a bit larger than neighboring station's rainfall (Dengego and Haramaya), indicating that climate instability is high in Dire Dawa than other nearby stations. The result also indicates that relatively there is a tendency of increasing pattern in average annual rainfall of Dire Dawa in forecasted period. In the region, the rainfall extreme event like flood predicts or inferred to be recurring at about 4.17 years. Moreover, the rainfall periodicities of Dengego and Dire Dawa are found to be more likely associated, which implies that rainfall extreme event frequency in two districts is statistical significantly associated. It is proposed that assessing the factors that cause the fluctuation in the pattern and frequency of rainfall distribution in the region is needed to be study. The impacts of climate variability and climate change are evident on almost all socio-economic sectors. The output of this study can play an important role in the design of hydrological structures in the area of study and help the policy makers in improve their decisions by taking into consideration the available and future water resources. Prediction of Long-term Pattern and its Extreme Event Materials and Methods Data and variable of the studyA time series of monthly 30 years rainfall data in mm for the period January, 1984 to January, 2014 collected by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia were used in the study. The data were collected from the synoptic stations of Dire Dawa and adjacent station: Dengego and Haramaya for further investigation. MethodologyThe development of climatology as a science has given rise to growing statistical applications on climatic information. Conducting investigations using standard statistical methodologies is an essential step in the development of climatology [13]. For instance, time series analysis is used in order to evaluate the temporal and spatial behavior of rainfall [14]. In this study a univariate Box-Jenkins Methods, in particular, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methods and spectral analysis and cross-spectral analysis are employed [15].Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SA...

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