A Novel Approach to Multihazard Modeling and Simulation

Smith, Silas W.; Portelli, Ian; Narzisi, Giuseppe; Nelson, Lewis S.; Menges, Fabian; Rekow, E. Dianne; Mincer, Joshua S.; Mishra, Bhubaneswar; Goldfrank, Lewis R.

doi:10.1097/dmp.0b013e3181a88899

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…These results expand the observations associated with short-term events and predicted through modeling: that patients are transported to the closest or familiar hospitals in disaster. 14,15 Additionally, these results are comparable to those reported when Saint Vincent's Hospital, a regional trauma center in lower Manhattan, abruptly ceased operations and permanently closed in April 2010. Sudden and sustained surges in patient volume and critical care occurred in 4 surrounding hospitals, particularly in the sole remaining regional trauma center, and patients experienced reduced access to care and prolonged travel times.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Prehospital Indicators for Disaster Preparedness and Response: New York City Emergency Medical Services in Hurricane Sandy

Smith

Braun

Portelli

et al. 2016

Disaster med. public health prep.

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EMS data identified hospitals with disproportionately increased patient loads after Hurricane Sandy. Loss of Bellevue, a public, safety net medical center, produced statistically significant increases in specific types of medical and trauma transports at surrounding hospitals. Focused redeployment of human, economic, and social capital across hospital systems may be required to expedite regional health care systems recovery. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:333-343).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Prehospital Indicators for Disaster Preparedness and Response: New York City Emergency Medical Services in Hurricane Sandy

Smith

Braun

Portelli

et al. 2016

Disaster med. public health prep.

Self Cite

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“…is routinely performed in an academic environment and numerous published surge models exist based on these systems. [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Methods to test planning efforts can include (virtual) table-top exercises, functional scenarios (in which 1 or more specific components are tested), and full-scale simulation involving the physical participation of many personnel and structures. 39 In the aftermath of any disaster, it is essential to develop an after-action report (AAR) to identify successes and opportunities for improvement in which existing plans can be modified or improved based on actual experiences.…”

Section: Type III Bmcimentioning

confidence: 99%

Disaster Preparedness and Response for the Burn Mass Casualty Incident in the Twenty-first Century

Kearns

Marcozzi

Barry

et al. 2017

Clinics in Plastic Surgery

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The effective and efficient coordination of emergent patient care at the point of injury followed by the systematic resource-based triage of casualties are the most critical factors that influence patient outcomes after mass casualty incidents (MCIs). The effectiveness and appropriateness of implemented actions are largely determined by the extent and efficacy of the planning and preparation that occur before the MCI. The goal of this work was to define the essential efforts related to planning, preparation, and execution of acute and subacute medical care for disaster burn casualties. This type of MCI is frequently referred to as a burn MCI."

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“…[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26] Of these published models, several used a software product named @Risk, 27 which performs Monte Carlo simulation, whereas others used one of the products that perform discrete event simulation. Modeling is routinely done in the academic environment or by specialized software vendors.…”

Section: Functional Period Of Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Disaster Planning

Kearns

Conlon

Valenta

et al. 2014

Journal of Burn Care & Research

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In 2005, the American Burn Association published burn disaster guidelines. This work recognized that local and state assets are the most important resources in the initial 24- to 48-hour management of a burn disaster. Historical experiences suggest there is ample opportunity to improve local and state preparedness for a major burn disaster. This review will focus on the basics of developing a burn surge disaster plan for a mass casualty event. In the event of a disaster, burn centers must recognize their place in the context of local and state disaster plan activation. Planning for a burn center takes on three forms; institutional/intrafacility, interfacility/intrastate, and interstate/regional. Priorities for a burn disaster plan include: coordination, communication, triage, plan activation (trigger point), surge, and regional capacity. Capacity and capability of the plan should be modeled and exercised to determine limitations and identify breaking points. When there is more than one burn center in a given state or jurisdiction, close coordination and communication between the burn centers are essential for a successful response. Burn surge mass casualty planning at the facility and specialty planning levels, including a state burn surge disaster plan, must have interface points with governmental plans. Local, state, and federal governmental agencies have key roles and responsibilities in a burn mass casualty disaster. This work will include a framework and critical concepts any burn disaster planning effort should consider when developing future plans.

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A Novel Approach to Multihazard Modeling and Simulation

Abstract: An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.

Cited by 16 publications

References 62 publications

Prehospital Indicators for Disaster Preparedness and Response: New York City Emergency Medical Services in Hurricane Sandy

Prehospital Indicators for Disaster Preparedness and Response: New York City Emergency Medical Services in Hurricane Sandy

Disaster Preparedness and Response for the Burn Mass Casualty Incident in the Twenty-first Century

Disaster Planning

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