A novel demographic-based model shows that intensive testing and social distancing are concurrently required to extinguish COVID-19 progression in densely populated urban areas

Abstract

<jats:p>We present a simple epidemiological model that includes demographic density, social distancing, and efficacy of massive testing and quarantine as the main parameters to model the progression of COVID-19 pandemics in densely populated urban areas (i.e., above 5,000 inhabitants km2). Our model demonstrates that effective containment of pandemic progression in densely populated cities is achieved only by combining social distancing and by widespread testing for quarantining of infected subjects. This finding has profound epidemiological significance and sheds light on the controversy regarding the relative effectiveness of widespread testing and social distancing. Our simple epidemiological simulator is also useful for assessing the efficacy of governmental/societal responses to an outbreak. This study also has relevant implications for the concept of smart cities, as densely populated areas are hotspots that are highly vulnerable to epidemic crises.</jats:p>

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“…11,12 Considering the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations regarding the need to increase the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests and the isolation and tracing of contacts, here, we conducted an investigation to evaluate the percentage of positive COVID-19 patients without diagnosis in Mexico because the total or partial absence of symptomatology in close contacts of COVID-19 patients. 13 We sought to depict the importance of asymptomatic infections in the patientto-patient transmission of COVID-19 and the relevance of tracing and testing close contacts to contain potential outbreaks.…”

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Portable and accurate diagnostics for COVID-19: Combined use of the miniPCR thermocycler and a well-plate reader for SARS-CoV-2 virus detection

“…Nevertheless, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [9] has broadsided most well developed and developing countries with only a few (i.e., South Korea [10], China, Singapore [11], and Taiwan [12]) showing an ability to deploy massive efforts for rapid and accurate detection of positive infection cases. The swift and massive testing of thousands of possibly infected subjects has been an important component of the strategy of these countries that has helped to effectively mitigate the spreading of COVID-19 among their populations [10,12–14]. And yet, most nations are still struggling to implement massive testing[15–17].…”