A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas

Abstract

In our study, we present a proactive decision support tool able to compute the impacts of different possible scenarios for territories impacted by mountain risks. The objective of this work was to develop and test various hazard and risk assessment methods, and to implement them into a web-application platform able to show possible risks induced by global change on ecosystems and society. Four case studies were selected for their representativeness: One located in a Pyrenean valley, others in the French Alps. Methodology addressed several points. The first one was on the identification of the impacts of global environmental changes (climatic situations, land use, and socio-economic systems) on identified hazards. The second one was on the analysis of these impacts in terms of vulnerability (e.g., the places and the physical modifications of impacted stakes, as well as levels of perturbation). The third one was on the integration of developed methodologies in a single coherent framework in order to investigate and map indicators of vulnerability. The last one was on the development of a demonstration platform with GIS (Geographic Information System) capabilities and usable on the web. The architecture and the main features of the web-platform are detailed within several cases for which hazard and impact assessments are evaluated for not only past and present, but also future periods. This web-tool, mostly dedicated to stakeholders, has proven its usefulness to test various socio-economical pathways, because multiple scenarios, considered as probable in inhabited valleys, can be benchmarked, analyzed, and compared.

Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain)

“…Only a few studies focused on the combined effect of LULC and climate changes on landsliding. (Grandjean et al 2018) evaluated and compared influences of several cases on landslide activities and proposed adequate solutions, taking the Pyrenees as the study area. Bernardie et al (2021) assessed the influences of these two changes on landslide hazard from the present to 2100 through the construction of various prospective socioeconomic and emissions scenarios and stated that both future changes will have significant impacts.…”

Modelling landslide hazards under global changes: the case of a Pyrenean valley

“…This study constitutes the first step in the process of risk assessment for different scenarios of climate and economic development to evaluate the resilience of this region. All these methods have been implemented on a web-application platform (Grandjean et al, 2018) dedicated to stakeholders that will allow the stakeholders to obtain indicators of the best solutions for improving the resilience of valleys that are coping with global change.…”

“…The evaluation of the impacts of global change on landslide activities is realized through the analysis of the effects of both vegetation cover and meteorological conditions on landslide activities; this analysis was conducted with the following method (Bernardie et al, 2017;Grandjean et al, 2018):…”

“…and the area was restored by Restauration des Terrains de Montagne Survey (RTM) from the National Forests Office (ONF) at the end of the 19th century (De Crécy, 1988). Dominated by ridgelines, with a maximum elevation of approximately 2500 m a.s.l., the municipality is subject to oceanic climatic influences, with an average rainfall of 1157 mm yr −1 and a thermal amplitude of 13 • C, typical for a mountain area (Gruber, 1991). However, under the oceanic influence, the valley is marked by a mountainous climate with intense storms during summer and autumn and large snowfalls during winter (it is often the snowiest resort area in France).…”

Risk-Based Decision Support for Protective Forest and Natural Hazard Management

“…These studies were conducted at different spatial scales from local [12][13][14][15] to regional [16,17] as well as national evaluations ( [18]; see also chapters [19][20][21] of this book). Other studies integrated Eco-DRR in hazard and risk models into more complex online DSS, for example, Grandjean et al [22] created a multirisk tool for identifying management strategies to reduce potential impacts of global change by considering short-and long-term changes in land use, climate change scenarios, and alternative socio-economic development pathways. Bebi et al [21] highlight how scenario-specific avalanche protective forest maps can be developed by collaborating with avalanche modelers and practitioners, and implemented into an interactive, web-based DSS providing combined information about natural hazards and effective avalanche protective forests.…”