A Novel Outlier-Robust Accuracy Measure for Machine Learning Regression Using a Non-Convex Distance Metric

Abstract

Regression, a supervised machine learning approach, establishes relationships between independent variables and a continuous dependent variable. It is widely applied in areas like price prediction and time series forecasting. The performance of regression models is typically assessed using error metrics such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). However, these metrics present challenges including sensitivity to outliers (notably MSE and RMSE) and scale dependency, which complicates comparisons across different models. Additionally, traditional metrics sometimes yield values that are difficult to interpret across various problems. Consequently, there is a need for a metric that consistently reflects regression model performance, independent of the problem domain, data scale, and outlier presence. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper introduces a new regression accuracy measure based on the Hassanat distance, a non-convex distance metric. This measure is not only invariant to outliers but also easy to interpret as it provides an accuracy-like value that ranges from 0 to 1 (or 0–100%). We validate the proposed metric against traditional measures across multiple benchmarks, demonstrating its robustness under various model scenarios and data types. Hence, we suggest it as a new standard for assessing regression models’ accuracy.