A Novel Predictive Machine Learning Model Integrating Cytokines in Cervical-Vaginal Mucus Increases the Prediction Rate for Preterm Birth

Abstract

Preterm birth (PB) is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. PB prediction is performed by measuring cervical length, with a detection rate of around 70%. Although it is known that a cytokine-mediated inflammatory process is involved in the pathophysiology of PB, none screening method implemented in clinical practice includes cytokine levels as a predictor variable. Here, we quantified cytokines in cervical-vaginal mucus of pregnant women (18–23.6 weeks of gestation) with high or low risk for PB determined by cervical length, also collecting relevant obstetric information. IL-2, IL-6, IFN-γ, IL-4, and IL-10 were significantly higher in the high-risk group, while IL-1ra was lower. Two different models for PB prediction were created using the Random Forest machine-learning algorithm: a full model with 12 clinical variables and cytokine values and the adjusted model, including the most relevant variables-maternal age, IL-2, and cervical length- (detection rate 66 vs. 87%, false positive rate 12 vs. 3.33%, false negative rate 28 vs. 6.66%, and area under the curve 0.722 vs. 0.875, respectively). The adjusted model that incorporate cytokines showed a detection rate eight points higher than the gold standard calculator, which may allow us to identify the risk PB risk more accurately and implement strategies for preventive interventions.

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“…Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown some benefits in clinical research. These tools in obstetrics have been used to incorporate data and images in machine learning models to predict preterm birth, birth weight, preeclampsia, mortality, hypertensive disorders, and postpartum depression and placental abnormalities, offering a reduction in inter-and intraoperator variability, time reduction in procedures, and improving overall diagnostic performance [20][21][22].…”