A Novel Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting Method for Large Power Grid

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting plays an important role in power system operation. If load and its deviation distribution could be accurately predicted, it's very helpful for power system reliability and economical efficiency. According predicting outcomes, percentage reserve would be optimized, and it's helpful for energy-saving and emission-reduction. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to predict load and its deviation for large power grid. Firstly, the large power grid is divided into some subnets. Then, the load of each subnet is predicted. Thirdly, the deviation distribution of each subnet is evaluated through historical data. Finally, the load of large power grid is predicted, and the deviation distribution is calculated. According to practical application in some provinces of China, it's proved that the new method is a simple method with high and stable accuracy. In China, the power consumption balance calculation is carried out by provinces, which are served by large power grids. Therefore, the research findings in this paper can improve the optimization level directly.

A Review of Distribution Network Planning with Large-Scale Intermittent Renewable Energy Access to Distribution Network

“…The probabilistic description of load predictive value on the errors of forecasting, which analysis on the load range envelope under different confidence level to achieve a probability of short-term load forecasting; Kurata and Mori [6] realize the Probabilistic load forecasting with the method of information Vector Machine. The method of accumulate subnet massive power load forecasting is proposed in literature [7], which to analysis each subnet deviation of the distribution of the distribution to get the whole. The literature [8] established considering the uncertainty of load forecasting system reliability and market price conjoint analysis model.…”

Adaptability verification and application of the t-distribution in short-term load forecasting error analysis

“…In order to quantitatively assess the impact incurred by load forecasting on power system operation, it is critical for system operators to analyze the distribution of load forecasting errors, and further clarify the forecasted load confidence interval. This task could be carried out by means of probabilistic short-term load forecasting [3][4][5].…”

The Sensitivity Analysis of Power Loads and Meteorological Factors in Typhoon Weather

“…Typhoon influence on power grid has great uncertainty and randomness. Studying the relation between power grid load and weather for improving the level of load forecasting precision [2] and power grid operation scheduling has important guiding significance.…”