A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model

Martínez‐López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamín; Ramos, Ángel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2010.07.009

Cited by 47 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…It is relevant for characterising the temporal and spatial variability of animal contact patterns11. The approach has recently been used in disease control and surveillance, for understanding the dynamics of past epidemics38, assessing the impact of movement bans1213 and predicting the size of epidemics1415.…”

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confidence: 99%

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

Guinat

Relun

Wall

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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An understanding of the patterns of animal contact networks provides essential information for the design of risk-based animal disease surveillance and control strategies. This study characterises pig movements throughout England and Wales between 2009 and 2013 with a view to characterising spatial and temporal patterns, network topology and trade communities. Data were extracted from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)’s RADAR (Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks) database, and analysed using descriptive and network approaches. A total of 61,937,855 pigs were moved through 872,493 movements of batches in England and Wales during the 5-year study period. Results show that the network exhibited scale-free and small-world topologies, indicating the potential for diseases to quickly spread within the pig industry. The findings also provide suggestions for how risk-based surveillance strategies could be optimised in the country by taking account of highly connected holdings, geographical regions and time periods with the greatest number of movements and pigs moved, as these are likely to be at higher risk for disease introduction. This study is also the first attempt to identify trade communities in the country, information which could be used to facilitate the pig trade and maintain disease-free status across the country in the event of an outbreak.

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confidence: 99%

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

Guinat

Relun

Wall

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…The latently infected premises were allowed to transit to subclinical and clinical disease status. The duration of different stages of CSF infection (i.e., latent, subclinical, and clinical) and the corresponding probability distributions were obtained from published studies (6, 20, 23) (Table 1). The transmission of viruses from the infected premises to susceptible premises was allowed through three modes: direct contact, indirect contact, and local spread.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the spread of viruses via direct or indirect contact, contact rates, probability of infection transfer, and distance distribution of recipient premises were specified. The input parameters for contact rates and probability of disease transfer were adopted from published studies (20, 24, 26). The NAADSM used the geolocation of swine premises in Indiana to compute the between-premises distance matrix.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such inconsistencies in the implementation of movement restriction zone sizes could negatively affect outbreak control efforts. Most of the CSF simulation studies have incorporated a fixed movement restriction zone size (17–20). Choices of movement restriction zone size in previous studies were different than the recommended movement restriction zone size in the United States.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Movement Restriction Zone Sizes in Controlling Classical Swine Fever Outbreaks

Yadav¹,

Widmar

Lay

et al. 2017

Front. Vet. Sci.

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The objective of this study was to compare the impacts of movement restriction zone sizes of 3, 5, 9, and 11 km with that of 7 km (the recommended zone size in the United States) in controlling a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak. In addition to zone size, different compliance assumptions and outbreak types (single site and multiple site) were incorporated in the study. Three assumptions of compliance level were simulated: baseline, baseline ± 10%, and baseline ± 15%. The compliance level was held constant across all zone sizes in the baseline simulation. In the baseline ± 10% and baseline ± 15% simulations, the compliance level was increased for 3 and 5 km and decreased for 9 and 11 km from the baseline by the indicated percentages. The compliance level remained constant in all simulations for the 7-km zone size. Four single-site (i.e., with one index premises at the onset of outbreak) and four multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of outbreak) CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana were simulated incorporating various zone sizes and compliance assumptions using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate epidemic duration, percentage of infected, and preemptively culled swine premises. Furthermore, a risk assessment model that incorporated the results from the disease spread model was developed to estimate the number of swine premises under movement restrictions that would experience animal welfare outcomes of overcrowding or feed interruption during a CSF outbreak in Indiana. Compared with the 7-km zone size, the 3-km zone size resulted in a longer median epidemic duration, larger percentages of infected premises, and preemptively culled premises (P’s < 0.001) across all compliance assumptions and outbreak types. With the assumption of a higher compliance level, the 5-km zone size significantly (P < 0.001) reduced the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises that would experience animal welfare outcomes in both outbreak types, whereas assumption of a lower compliance level for 9- and 11-km zone sizes significantly (P < 0.001) increased the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises with animal welfare outcomes compared with the 7-km zone size. The magnitude of impact due to a zone size varied across the outbreak types (single site and multiple site). Overall, the 7-km zone size was found to be most effective in controlling CSF outbreaks, whereas the 5-km zone size was comparable to the 7-km zone size in some circumstances.

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“…In most cases these are mass-action, state-transition Monte Carlo simulation models. For example, Jalvingh et al (1999) and Martinez-Lopez et al (2011) used a similar model to simulate a CSF epizootic and thereby to evaluate control measures. Durand and Mahul (2000) used state-transition models to analyse the impact of herd density and control measures on virus spread.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia

Valčić¹,

Stanojevic²,

Radojičić³

et al. 2015

Vet. Med. - Czech

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Several different strategies for control and eradication of classical swine fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analysed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epidemic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in the protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop the spread and for the eradication of the disease. Moreover, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters was demonstrated to be an appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and the establishment of a stable epidemiological situation.

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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model

Cited by 47 publications

References 11 publications

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

Evaluation of Movement Restriction Zone Sizes in Controlling Classical Swine Fever Outbreaks

Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia

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