We study the evolution of localized wave groups in unidirectional water wave envelope equations [the nonlinear Schrödinger (NLSE) and the modified NLSE (MNLSE)]. These localizations of energy can lead to disastrous extreme responses (rogue waves). We analytically quantify the role of such spatial localization, introducing a technique to reduce the underlying partial differential equation dynamics to a simple ordinary differential equation for the wave packet amplitude. We use this reduced model to show how the scale-invariant symmetries of the NLSE break down when the additional terms in the MNLSE are included, inducing a critical scale for the occurrence of extreme waves. [5,6]. In this work we address the formation of freak or extreme waves on the surface of deep water. These waves have caused considerable damage to ships, oil rigs, and human life [7,8].Extreme waves are rare and available data describing them are limited. Thus, analytical understanding of the physics of their triggering mechanisms is critical. One such mechanism is the Benjamin-Feir modulation instability of a plane wave to small sideband perturbations. This instability, which has been demonstrated experimentally, generates huge coherent structures by soaking up energy from the nearby field [9][10][11][12]. The ocean surface, however, is much more irregular than a simple plane wave. The Benjamin-Feir index (BFI), the ratio of surface amplitude to spectral width, measures the strength of the modulation instability in such irregular fields. For spectra with a large BFI, nonlinear interactions dominate, resulting in more extreme waves than Gaussian statistics would suggest. However, a large BFI does not provide precise spatiotemporal locations where extreme events might occur.In large BFI regimes, spatially localized wave groups of modest amplitude focus, creating the extreme waves. Here we quantify the role of this spatial localization in extreme wave formation. In addition to providing insight into the triggering mechanisms for extreme waves, this analysis will allow the development of different spatiotemporal predictive schemes. Specifically, by understanding which wave groups are likely to trigger an extreme wave, one could identify when and where an extreme wave is likely to occur, in a manner similar to that of Cousins and Sapsis [13] for the Majda-McLaughlinTabak model [14]. By analyzing the evolution of spatially localized fields, the authors found a particular length scale that was highly sensitive for the formation of extreme events. By measuring energy localized at this critical scale, the authors reliably predicted extreme events for meager computational expense. * Corresponding author: sapsis@mit.edu Two commonly used equations to model the envelope of a modulated carrier wave on deep water are the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) and the modified NLSE (MNLSE) [15]. The focusing of localized groups is well understood for the NLSE (see the work of Adcock et al. [16,17] and Onorato et al. [18]). In this paper we study the less u...