A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Description of the emission module

Sofiev, M.; Siljamo, Pilvi; Ranta, Hanna; Linkosalo, Tapio; Jaeger, S.; Rasmussen, Alix; Rantio-Lehtimäki, A.; Severova, Elena; Kukkonen, Jaakko

doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0532-z

Cited by 162 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…These results are in agreement with those obtained in Aarhus (Denmark) for grass pollen concentrations . Nevertheless, the atmospheric transport of pollen at these scales is poorly understood, and the understanding and modelling of pollen transport that combines these scales has been identified as one of the major challenges for the modelling community (Sofiev et al 2013). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

et al. 2014

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Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1°resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, mesogamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prtenjak et al 2012;Sofiev et al 2013;Schueler and Schlünzen 2006;Zink et al 2012). The application of these tools increases the understanding of pollen transport compared to the use of ground-based meteorological observations (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

et al. 2014

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“…The European-scale source term used in the current study was developed for the SILAM model (http://silam. fmi.fi) by an international consortium within the scope of the POLLEN project of the Academy of Finland (Siljamo et al, 2012;Sofiev et al, 2012a). Various versions of the model have been used for forecasts of pollen distribution in Europe starting from 2005 (Sofiev et al, 2006a) and reanalysis of the flowering seasons back to 1997 (Siljamo et al, 2008c;Veriankaitė et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The sevenmodel European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the seaPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. M. Sofiev et al.: MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersionson were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a recordlow pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

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“…Many processes such as wind advection, turbulent mixing, gravitational settling, and scavenging with precipitation have to be implemented into the model. The European group successfully reproduced the observed distribution patterns and absolute levels of concentration (Sofiev et al 2013;Siljamo et al 2013). However, because model and observation uncertainties prevent 1 According to the formula given by Metz (1991), the effective degree of freedom (DOF) is a function of decorrelation time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Analysis on Daily Variations of Birch Pollen Amount with Climatic Variables in Sapporo

Inatsu

Kobayashi

Takeuchi

et al. 2014

SOLA

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Birch pollen mainly causes springtime allergy-related diseases, birch pollinoses, widely known in high-latitude countries. By utilizing the observation in Sapporo from 2001 to 2011, we found that the daily pollen amount almost follows the log-normal distribution with its characteristic time-scale of several days. The pollen amount itself was therefore taken as a major predictor for its day-to-day variations. Another predictor was chosen from climatic variables that were possibly related to the pollen amount such as temperature, rainfall, sunshine duration, wind, relative humidity, rainfall, and daily temperature difference to explain daily variations of the pollen amount. A resulting statistical equation with two independent predictors of lagged pollen amount and diurnal temperature range based on the multiple regression analysis provided a reasonable hindcast prediction with the correlation coeffcient with observation being 0.80. Moreover, the equation was better fitted to the observations in abundant years than in poor-yield years.(Citation: Inatsu, M., S. Kobayashi, S. Takeuchi, and A. Ohmori, 2014: Statistical analysis on daily variations of birch pollen amount with climatic variables in Sapporo. SOLA, 10, 172−175,

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A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Description of the emission module

Cited by 162 publications

References 53 publications

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

Statistical Analysis on Daily Variations of Birch Pollen Amount with Climatic Variables in Sapporo

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