A Numerical Simulation of Current Status of Summer and an Attempt to Project a Future Thermal Environment Combined With Pseudo Global Warming Data

Iizuka, Satoru; Kinbara, Kazuya; Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Hara, Masayuki; Akimoto, Yuko

doi:10.3130/aije.75.87

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Hara et al (2010) used the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF, Skamarock et al 2008) model with 3-km horizontal grid spacing coupled to a single-layer UCM to project the urban climate of the 2070s in Japan, although the time integration was limited to December of a specific year. Similar research has been done by Iizuka et al (2010), but for August of a specific year. To study the Houston, USA region, Shepherd et al (2010) used MM5 (the fifthgeneration Mesoscale Model; Dudhia et al 1993, Grell et al 1994) with an urban scenario for 2025, but it was a case study for a specific day, and the initial and boundary conditions were created from present analysis data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Urban Climate Projection by the WRF Model at 3-km Horizontal Grid Increment: Dynamical Downscaling and Predicting Heat Stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Metropolises

Kusaka

Hara

Takane

2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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152

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This study presents the projected urban climate for the 2070s' August in the three largest urban areas, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya in Japan. To accurately evaluate the urban climate, the simulations use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with 3-km grid increment coupled to an urban canopy model (UCM). To project future urban climate, the simulations apply dynamical downscaling to three GCMs (MIROC3.2-medres, MRI-CGCM2.3.2a, CSIRO-Mk3.0) and use the ensemble average for results. The results provide estimates of the heat stress to future residents of Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya.The WRF-UCM model reproduces the observed spatial distribution of the surface air temperature in the 2000s' August, giving an all-domain mean bias of À1.2 C and RSME of 2.7 C. For Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, these biases are À0.6, À0.1, and À0.4 C. Moreover, the diurnal temperature variations at these urban stations are well reproduced. The projected monthly average August temperatures in the 2070s are about 2.3 C higher than those in the 2000s at the three urban areas and comparable to those in the record-breaking hot summer of 2010. (Predictions by individual ensemble members di¤er by 0.8-1.2 C.) As a result, urban areas will experience uncomfortable sleeping nights nearly every day in August, with roughly as many heat-induced sleeping-discomfort nights as those in 2010. Moreover, application of the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) shows that people in Tokyo will be warned not to strenuously exercise outdoors for 62% of the daytime hours in the 2070s, a sharp increase from the 30% of the 2000s. (Predictions by individual ensemble members range from 54-67%). Osaka and Nagoya will have even more restrictions on outdoor exercise. Finally, the urban heat island intensity is 1.5 C in Tokyo of the 2070s, comparable to the background climate warming of 2.3 C.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Urban Climate Projection by the WRF Model at 3-km Horizontal Grid Increment: Dynamical Downscaling and Predicting Heat Stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Metropolises

Kusaka

Hara

Takane

2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

Self Cite

152

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“…The daytime surface air temperature rose more slowly in urban areas than in rural areas because of the better capacity for heat storage in urban regions. Using the regional atmospheric model and pseudo-global warming method, Iizuka et al [46,47] studied the urban thermal environment during summers in the Nagoya metropolitan area in the 2070s. The results demonstrated that the air temperature in this area would increase more than was expected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Greening Areas and Water Bodies on Urban Microclimate in Wuhan—A Simulation Study Considering Prospective Planning

et al. 2022

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To alleviate the urban heat island effect and reduce the consumption of electricity and expenditure caused by active cooling devices on hot days, many cities in tropical and subtropical areas emphasize the utilization of urban greening areas in current and future urban planning. We utilized the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) to simulate and study the impact of different greening area rates on the urban microclimate in business, residential, and industrial areas in Wuhan city. Meanwhile, we proposed two efficiency coefficients to evaluate the variable cooling benefit of the improvement of the greening area. The results show that greening areas and water bodies are the cooling sources of cities and that industrial areas benefit the most from improvements in the greening rate, with the average temperature declining by 1.06 °C with a 20% increase in the greening rate, while the corresponding values of residential and industrial areas were 0.98 °C and 0.92 °C, respectively. This research provides a reference for the future planning of tropical and subtropical areas to help improve the urban microclimate, thermal environment, and environmental comfort on hot days.

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“…Using a regional atmospheric model, Iizuka et al . analyzed the thermal environment during the summers of the 2070s in the Nagoya metropolitan area. Done et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lin et al [20] used a next generation mesoscale WRF model, coupled with a Noah land surface model and an urban canopy model, to study the UHI impact on boundary-layer development and land-sea circulation in northern Taiwan. Using a regional atmospheric model, Iizuka et al [21,22] analyzed the thermal environment during the summers of the 2070s in the Nagoya metropolitan area. Done et al [23] used WRF to analysis the explicit treatment of convection, the explicit treatment of convection in NWP did not necessarily provide a better point specific-forecast, but rather a more accurate depiction of the physics of convective systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurement and evaluation of the microphysics and boundary‐layer schemes in hot and humid zones in WRF model

Deng

Zhou

2016

Env Prog and Sustain Energy

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The problem of the urban heat island is becoming increasingly serious in China, especially in the cities with hot and humid climate. As a simulation tool, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model can reflect the situation of the urban heat island. In this article, air temperature and relative humidity above the building canopy layer of Wuhan, China, were measured to choose appropriate microphysics and boundary-layer schemes for the WRF model. Through comparison of measurements and simulation results, the case using the WSM 6 microphysics and Yonsei University boundary-layer schemes showed the best agreement with the measured data. The applicability of the appropriate model was verified against near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity observations from two meteorological stations. The magnitude of simulated air temperature was lower than observed, whereas the magnitudes of simulated relative humidity and wind velocity were higher.

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A Numerical Simulation of Current Status of Summer and an Attempt to Project a Future Thermal Environment Combined With Pseudo Global Warming Data

Cited by 6 publications

References 11 publications

Urban Climate Projection by the WRF Model at 3-km Horizontal Grid Increment: Dynamical Downscaling and Predicting Heat Stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Metropolises

Urban Climate Projection by the WRF Model at 3-km Horizontal Grid Increment: Dynamical Downscaling and Predicting Heat Stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Metropolises

Effects of Greening Areas and Water Bodies on Urban Microclimate in Wuhan—A Simulation Study Considering Prospective Planning

Measurement and evaluation of the microphysics and boundary‐layer schemes in hot and humid zones in WRF model

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