A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China

Shen, Caiming; Wang, Wei‐Chyung; Gong, Wei; Hao, Zhixin

doi:10.1029/2005gl024804

Cited by 183 publications

(193 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

183

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although climatic oscillations at an 80-year period in China is well established (e.g. Wang et al 1981;Shen et al 2006), it should be noted that our study, to our knowledge, is the first to report temperature-driven climatic patterns with a predominant period of 160-170 years in China, a periodic climatic pattern that also drives locust dynamics. Our results suggest that China experienced more droughts and floods in the colder periods than in the warmer periods, but that the association between floods and temperature may vary regionally.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

et al. 2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

et al. 2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The variability in the precipitation index is associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, the latitudinal positions of winter storms being shifted southward in wet years and northward in dry years (13). We hypothesize that the temperature and precipitation proxies combined track lowfrequency variability in the East Asian monsoon, which is associated with changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns in China (22)(23)(24). In terms of locust ecology, we hypothesize that temperature is negatively associated with locust abundance at a decadal and regional scale because of increases in suitable breeding habitats during cold and wet periods (with frequent droughts and floods).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

Stige

Chan

Zhang

et al. 2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

120

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.agricultural pest ͉ ecological response ͉ frequency dependence ͉ global warming ͉ Locusta migratoria manilensis

show abstract

“…Although, in the twentieth century, GOA temperatures express a strong coherence with the PDO, it cannot be assumed that this teleconnected relationship has been stable through time or that the PDO has always been equally important as present. More comparative analysis is needed with other PDO proxies from North America and Asia (MacDonald and Case 2005;Shen et al 2006;, as well as other proxies expressing decadal oscillatory behavior in the tropics (Evans et al 2001;D'Arrigo et al 2005) to gain insight into the spatial coherence of these multi-decadal signals. Our analysis shows, however, that although oscillatory behavior can be identified in GOA temperatures-and therefore possibly the North Pacific as a whole-the temporal stability and the interaction of these modes of variability, as well as their causes, are not well enough understood at this time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cycles and shifts: 1,300 years of multi-decadal temperature variability in the Gulf of Alaska

et al. 2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is highly sensitive to shifts in North Pacific climate variability. Here we present an extended tree-ring record of JanuarySeptember GOA coastal surface air temperatures using tree-ring width data from coniferous trees growing in the mountain ranges along the GOA. The reconstruction , based on living trees, explains 44% of the temperature variance, although, as the number of chronologies decreases back in time, this value decreases to, and remains around~30% before 1840. Verification of the calibrated models is, however, robust. Utilizing sub-fossil wood, we extend the GOA reconstruction back to the early eighth century. The GOA reconstruction correlates significantly (95% CL) with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (0.53) and North Pacific Index (-0.42) and therefore likely yields important information on past climate variability in the North Pacific region. Intervention analysis on the GOA reconstruction identifies the known twentieth century climate shifts around the 1940s and 1970s, although the mid-1920s shift is only weakly expressed. In the context of the full 1,300 years record, the well studied 1976 shift is not unique. Multi-taper method spectral analysis shows that the spectral properties of the living and sub-fossil data are similar, with both records showing significant (95% CL) spectral peaks at 9-11, 13-14 and 18-19 years. Singular spectrum analysis identifies (in order of importance) significant oscillatory modes at 18.7, 50.4, 38.0, 91.8, 24.4, 15.3 and 14.1 years. The amplitude of these modes varies through time. It has been suggested (Minobe in Geophys Res Lett 26: [855][856][857][858] 1999) that the regime shifts during the twentieth century can be explained by the interaction between pentadecadal (50.4 years) and bidecadal (18.7 years) oscillatory modes. Removal of these two modes of variance from our GOA time series does indeed remove the twentieth century shifts, but many are still identified prior to the twentieth century. Our analysis suggests that climate variability of the GOA is very complex, and that much more work is required to understand the underlying oscillatory behavior that is observed in instrumental and proxy records from the North Pacific region.

show abstract

A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China

Cited by 183 publications

References 24 publications

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

Cycles and shifts: 1,300 years of multi-decadal temperature variability in the Gulf of Alaska

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About