A Permafrost Probability Model for the Southern Yukon and Northern British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

Permafrost maps are needed for infrastructure planning, climatic change adaptation strategies and northern development but often lack sufficient detail for these purposes. The high‐resolution (30 x 30 m grid cells) probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia presented in this paper (regional model) is a combination of seven local empirical‐statistical models, each developed from basal temperature of snow measurements in winter and ground‐truthing of frozen‐ground presence in summer. The models were blended using a distance‐decay power approach to generate a map of permafrost probability over an area of almost 500 000 km2 between 59°N and 65°N. The result is broadly similar to previous permafrost maps with an average permafrost probability of 58 per cent for the region as a whole. There are notable differences in detail, however, because the main predictive variable used in the local models is equivalent elevation, which incorporates the effects of gentle or inverted surface lapse rates in the forest zone. Most of the region shows permafrost distribution patterns that are non‐linear, resembling those from continental areas such as Mongolia. Only the southwestern area shows a similar mountain permafrost distribution to that in the European Alps with a well‐defined lower limit and a linear increase in probability with elevation. The results of the modelling can be presented on paper using traditional classifications into permafrost zones but given the level of detail, they will be more useful as an interactive online map. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Change in frozen soils and its effect on regional hydrology, upper Heihe basin, northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

“…Sub-grid topography may also affect the frozen soil simulation. For example, active layer thickness is different between the low-elevation valleys and higher-elevation slopes due to the temperature inversion caused by the accumulation of cold air in valleys (Bonnaventure et al, 2012;O'Neill et al, 2015). In areas with high groundwater flow rates, laterally advected heat flux may increase the thawing of permafrost Sjöberg et al, 2016).…”

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

“…IPCC, 2007), the model cannot take such changes into account. This paper is based on perturbing the mean annual air temperature field in a regional model previously developed to show the probability of permafrost under current climatic conditions (Bonnaventure et al, 2012b). The objective of the scenario-based modelling presented here is to reveal the degree and spatial pattern of potential permafrost loss, highlighting how this varies across the study region.…”

“…1. Map of the study region showing intensive modelling sites (see Bonnaventure et al, 2012b) in relation to permafrost zones (Heginbottom et al, 1995) and climatic regions (Wahl et al, 1987 mainly subarctic continental, with long, cold winters and short, warm summers, varying with elevation and mountainside orientation (Natural Resources Canada, 2010). MAAT ranges from about 5 • C in the extreme southwest to <−10 • C on the highest peaks (Lewkowicz et al, 2012).…”

“…The regional model (RM) of permafrost probability (Bonnaventure et al, 2012b) is an empirical-statistical model, which relates field data collected in both winter and summer to variables calculated from a digital elevation model (DEM; resolution 30 m × 30 m) in a geographic information system (GIS). The relationship between permafrost distribution and elevation in this area is complex and valley bottoms are at relatively high elevations (typically 600-700 m a.s.l.)…”

Hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin Under Potential Climate Change Scenarios

“…An earlier paper (Blais-Stevens et al 2012a) presented derived results from a landslide inventory and qualitative heuristic landslide susceptibility models to create susceptibility maps for debris flows and rock falls/rock slides. This paper focuses on landslide susceptibility models developed for landslides triggered in permafrost, such as active layer detachment slides (ALD) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), using a high resolution permafrost probability model developed by Bonnaventure et al (2012). The potential impact of climate warming was also investigated.…”