A Perspective on the Future of CMIP

Stevens, Bjorn

doi:10.1029/2023av001086

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 48 publications

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“…In a recent paper, a group of early-mid career researchers have raised a call on the risk of modelintercomparison becoming a quality-control activity in place of a creative research endeavor (Jain et al, 2022). Others have argued that CMIP should be operationalized to better support decision making (Jakob et al, 2023;Stevens 2024).…”

Section: Communicating Regional Climate Change Including Record-shatt...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Shaw,

Arias,

Collins

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

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Section: Communicating Regional Climate Change Including Record-shatt...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Shaw,

Arias,

Collins

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research

Kretschmer,

Jézéquel,

Labe

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Research on weather and climate extremes has become integral to climate science due to their increasing societal relevance and impacts in the context of anthropogenic climate change. In this perspective we examine recent changes and evolving paradigms in the study of extreme events, emphasizing the increasingly interdisciplinary nature of research and their societal implications. We discuss the importance of understanding the physical basis of extreme events and its linkages to climate impacts, highlighting the need for collaboration across multiple disciplines. Furthermore, we explore the challenge of big climate data analysis and the application of novel statistical methods, such as machine learning, in enhancing our understanding of extreme events. Additionally, we address the engagement with different stakeholder groups and the evolving landscape of climate services and private‐sector involvement. We conclude with reflections on the risks and opportunities for early career researchers in navigating these interdisciplinary and societal demands, stressing the importance of meaningful scientific engagement, and removing barriers to inclusivity and collaboration in climate research.

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Flipping of temperature and precipitation trends over the Indian subcontinent due to diametrically opposing influence of GHGs and aerosols

Shilin,

Ghosh,

Karmakar

2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Despite significant development in the Earth system models (ESMs) and releases of several coupled model intercomparison projects (CMIPs), the evolving patterns of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its future trajectory is still uncertain, with low confidence in its direction. This could be because of differential impacts from increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations. We found that the observed pre-2000 (1951–2000) declining monsoon was likely attributed to the increasing aerosol concentrations. On the contrary, the reported revival of post-2000 monsoon rainfall is due to GHG dominance. These are spatiotemporally consistent with individual CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) ESM simulations with GHG and aerosols separately. Similar results were obtained for temperature in India, which showed no to low warming signal in pre-2000 due to aerosol-driven cooling. The dominance of GHG impacts has increased India’s warming trend in post-2000. This research highlights a notable trend in temperature and precipitation across the Indian subcontinent during the past two decades, emphasizing the dynamic character of climate change explained by contrasting anthropogenic influences, including GHGs and aerosols.

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A Perspective on the Future of CMIP

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research

Flipping of temperature and precipitation trends over the Indian subcontinent due to diametrically opposing influence of GHGs and aerosols

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