A practical probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis tool: case study Marmara region

Abstract

Earthquakes have a damaging impact on the economic welfare and resilience of communities, particularly in developing countries. Seismic hazard assessment is the first step towards performing prevention, preparedness, and response or recovery actions to reduce seismic risk. This paper presents a computation tool for predicting the seismic hazard at the macro level as a part of a comprehensive multi-hazard framework on earthquake risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure is based on the Monte-Carlo approach, and particular attention is paid to the definition of source zones assigned in the study area. Both Poisson and time dependent (renewal) models are adopted to quantify the effect of temporal dependencies between seismic events, while near-field rupture directivity effects are also taken into account. Marmara region in Turkey is selected as a case study area to perform a new seismic hazard analysis and verify the accuracy of the proposed tool. The results show good agreement with results from the recent SHARE project and the latest Turkish Earthquake Design code hazard maps. This confirms that the proposed PSHA method can be an attractive alternative to the direct integration based methods due to its practicality and powerful handling of uncertainties.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework for Uganda: A stochastic modelling approach

“…This entire process is essentially repeated for a given number of simulations (e.g., 1,000 simulations of 100 years of earthquake catalogue); then all ground motion levels at a site are combined and sorted in decreasing order of severity. Finally, the ground shaking values at a site for the desired return periods are determined (Sianko et al, 2020). This process is repeated for all sites in the area of interest.…”

“…Whilst several earthquake risk assessment tools (e.g., GEM-Europe, HAZUS, and RADIUS) have been developed to manage the associated risks, their applicability in developing countries like Uganda is still difficult due to lack of data (e.g., scarce records of historical earthquakes, lack of empirical data required to calibrate and numerically verify site-response models, and scanty information on fault characterisation etc.) in such regions (Sianko et al, 2020). Yet, there is a high demand for risk assessment tools that rely on basic information that can be readily obtained using local surveys.…”

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment Framework: Case study Adapazari, Turkey

“…Assessment of seismic hazard is an essential component of seismic risk analysis. In a previous study (Sianko, 2020), a MC based PSHA was developed as a part of the seismic risk assessment framework proposed in this work. MC simulations are used to generate synthetic earthquake catalogues to represent future seismicity.…”

“…A scenario earthquake with characteristics similar to 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, is generated using the hazard analysis tool developed in a previous study (Sianko et al, 2020). The fault rupture model is represented by a single rectangular plane with magnitude of .…”

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While earthquakes can have a devastating impact on the economic growth and social welfare of earthquake prone regions, probabilistic seismic risk assessment can be employed to assess and mitigate such risks from future destructive events. In a previous study (Sianko, 2020), a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) tool based on the Monte-Carlo (MC) approach, was developed to predict the seismic hazard for high seismicity areas. In this study, a seismic risk assessment framework is developed incorporating the previously developed PSHA tool, with vulnerability functions based on various damage criteria, exposures and casualty models.

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