A practical way to integrate risk in forest management decisions

Abstract

& Key message The concept of expected losses is an appropriate measure for integrating risk in the determination of the optimal rotation period and choice of tree species. & Context Natural threats are challenging forest management decisions. Essential decisions about the optimal length of a harvest period are often taken without considering risks. & Aims Here, a practical and easy to apply way to integrate risk in these decisions is shown. Furthermore, it is seen how the rotation period changes according to the risk-type and risk-level. & Methods The marginal principle of Preßler's indicator rate is developed further by including the concept of expected losses, leading to an optimal harvest age under risk. The application of the new formula is shown by a simulation, which also visualises the influence on the optimal rotation age. & Results Whether risk influences the optimal harvest age compared to a risk free solution, depends on the relationship between expected losses in terms of land rent of the succeeding stand and expected losses in terms of value growth of the existing stand. If they are equal, the rotation age stays. If the expected loss on value growth is bigger than on land rent, the rotation period will be shorter, while it will be longer if the relation is inverse. & Conclusion The concept of expected losses can be applied to practically determine the optimal rotation period under risk.

Ninety-five years of observed disturbance-based tree mortality modeled with climate-sensitive accelerated failure time models

“…In order to be more realistic, different species' growth characteristics, not only age, but also height should be taken into account as a reference. Tree or stand ages are important information for economic models and management decisions that include adjustments of the rotation cycles under climate change (Staupendahl and Möhring 2011;Möllmann and Möhring 2017) and economic-based species selection (Neuner and Knoke 2017;Paul et al 2019). To perform economic analyses, it is thus important to carry the variable tree or stand age in any study.…”

Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech?

“…By reporting the threshold for which spruce would lose its dominant position, our finding appears robust in face of climate change-related uncertainties. Expected returns for spruce under climate change are probably rather conservative, as we also excluded further adaptation strategies, such as selection of plant material (Gray and Hamann 2011), thinning concepts, and optimal rotation age, which may not only increase economic performance (Bright and Price 2000;Möllmann and Möhring 2017) but also stand resistance of spruce (Bolte et al 2009;Jandl et al 2015). Our dataset suggested a rotation period of 90 years for spruce.…”

“…Empiric survival functions of tree species have a particular appeal for integration into bio-economic decision models, to account for probability of stand failure (Burkhardt et al 2014;Deegen and Matolepszy 2015;Staupendahl and Möhring 2011) and to estimate risk costs (Möllmann and Möhring 2017). These studies have mostly focused on adaptation strategies related to optimal rotation periods of single species.…”

“…The tree species-specific empiric survival model uses a European dataset and allows for model parametrization with a wide set of climate conditions, thus mimicking potential future climate conditions. This approach goes beyond existing survival modelling so far used in bioeconomic models (e.g., Möllmann and Möhring 2017;Neuner and Knoke 2017). This is not only in terms of the extended data base.…”

ASPECTS OF ENGINEER & ECONOMICS EDUCATION IN STATE FOREST ENGI NEERING UNIVERSITY

“…Знания всегда обращены в прошлое, каноническое. Современные вызовы инновационного развития науки управления лесными отраслями экономики требуют от специалиста компетентностной готовности к осмысленному формированию образа будущего бизнеса с применением современных методов познания, включая эвристическое программирование различных локальных сценариев деятельности во времени и пространстве, учитывающих форму и силу внешних и внутренних факторов, виды рисков и вероятности их проявлений [22,35]. Чтобы такой инструмент мог стать реальностью, требуется подготовка современного проект-менеджера психологически и физически пригодного для каждого вида деятельности в составе элиты управленцев лесного сектора экономики.…”