A Predictive Discrete Event Simulation for Predicting Operation Times in Container Terminal

Abstract

Container terminals (CTs) play a crucial role within the global supply chain in the context of the global container transportation business. The primary obligation associated with these terminals involves ensuring the punctual execution of primary vessel operations, while strictly adhering to the Estimated Time of Departure (ETD) for vessels. To accomplish this goal, it is crucial to develop rigorous and exact operating strategies. Nonetheless, the accurate prediction of operation times in CT presents a significant challenge due to the concurrent involvement of various Container Handling Equipment (CHE) and the occurrence of unforeseen situations. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel approach called Predictive Discrete Event Simulation (PDES) that utilizes data collected from CT to predict the operation times. The PDES is an advanced approach that builds upon the widely used Discrete Event Simulation (DES) technique in the field of simulations. It is specifically designed to provide precise predictions of the operation times in CTs, where multiple events take place concurrently. The PDES in this paper aims to overcome the shortcomings of current simulation-based approaches for prediction in CT. These approaches often rely on predefined task sequences and assumed time for job handling time of CHE in their scenarios, which can result in reduced accuracy when predicting operation times. Through the resolution of these issues, the proposed PDES exhibits the capacity to improve predictive performance. To enhance the predictive performance of operation times in CTs through PDES, two approaches are introduced. The first approach entails the application of Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms for the purpose of predicting operation times. This approach is further augmented by integrating it with DES to improve the accuracy of predictive performance. The second approach involves predicting by simulating real-world operational scenarios in CTs using algorithms for CHE assignment. The predictive performance of the proposed PDES is assessed through the utilization of data gathered from Busan Port Terminal (BPT) in South Korea, demonstrating superior performance compared to alternative prediction approaches.