A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience Based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI)

Abstract

The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project's main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens' security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential

Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts

“…These capacities play a significant role in preserving the social structure and functionality of society during and after catastrophic events. In the domain of disaster studies, research efforts are directed towards a deeper understanding of resilience through four key areas of interest [25]: (1) resilience as a biophysical attribute;…”

“…(2) resilience as a social attribute; (3) the resilience of socio-ecological systems; and (4) the attributes of a specific geographical area. Additionally, it is possible to identify three distinct levels of community (social) resilience, each characterized by its specifics: (1) resilience manifested in resisting significant changes; (2) resilience expressed through effectively opposing minor marginal changes; and (3) resilience arising from openness and the ability to adapt to diverse challenges and changes in the environment [26,27].…”

“…The resilience of social communities to disasters has become a crucial societal goal that attracts the attention of researchers and decision-makers in various sectors and scientific disciplines. A literature analysis has indicated several challenges that require attention, suggesting the significance of upcoming research [1]: insufficient examination of the impact of social identity on building resilience in social communities; a lack of consensus on the content and scope of the resilience concept, specific dimensions, and indicators of social community resilience, etc.…”

“…At present, resilience is acknowledged as an important field of study that covers a wide range of elements and facets [1][2][3]. This conceptual domain now includes societal and economic factors, in addition to human characteristics [4].…”

“…Roughly speaking, resilience turns into an essential skill that permits prosperity despite adversity, in addition to survival. To put it succinctly, resilience has advanced beyond traditional methods and is now a crucial component for people as well as society [1]. This idea is becoming more and more relevant when thinking about a variety of difficult problems and offers vital guidance for creating a stronger social and economic framework.…”