A preliminary model of long-term changes in stream acidity in southwestern Scotland

Cosby, B. J.; Whitehead, Paul; Neale, Richard

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(86)90135-6

Cited by 48 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Models such as MAGIC (Model of Acidification In Groundwaters) successfully predicted this slow recovery (Cosby et al, 1986) and some studies warned of future problems associated with increased N deposition and climate change (Wilby, 1993;Wright et al, 1995;Whitehead et al, 1997;Monteith et al, 2000). Climate variables that could affect acidification include higher temperatures, increased summer drought, wetter winters, reduced snow pack, concomitant changes in hydrological pathways, and increased occurrence of sea-salt deposition events.…”

Section: Acidification and Doc In The Uplandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has a suite of ecological sub-models linked to a hydrodynamic model, and has been used in conjunction with the rainfall-runoff model NAM (Nitrogen Ammonia Model) to simulate nitrogen fluxes in lowland Danish catchments (Andersen et al, 2006). Another development of existing models is the use of a landscape-based mixing model (PEARLS: Prediction of Acidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale) coupled with the acidification model MAGIC (Cosby et al, 1986) to simulate the recovery from acidification of the Conwy in North Wales, UK, a large heterogeneous river basin .…”

Section: Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Assessing this uncertainty is important. However, as was shown in the acid rain projects in the 1980s, uncertain models can provide some extremely useful information for planners and managers (Cosby et al, 1986). A testament of this is that those models have correctly predicted the broad recovery of acid lakes and rivers across northern Europe (Wright et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Whitehead

Wilby

Battarbee

et al. 2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

1,026

561

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.Key words climate change; water quality; rivers; catchments; lakes; estuaries; ecology; hydrochemistry Une revue des impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur la qualité des eaux de surface Résumé Il est maintenant admis qu'un certain changement climatique d'origine anthropique est inévitable. Les impacts potentiels sur l'alimentation en eau ont fait l'objet de nombreuses attentions, mais peu de connaissances sont disponibles sur les changements associés en termes de qualité de l'eau. Les changements prévus en termes de température de l'air et de précipitations pourraient affecter les écoulements des rivières et par conséquent la mobilité et la dilution des substances polluantes. Une augmentation des températures de l'eau affectera la cinétique des réactions chimiques et, par combinaison avec les dégradations de la qualité, l'état écologique des hydrosystèmes. Une augmentation des écoulements aura pour conséquences des changements dans la puissance des cours d'eau et donc aussi des charges sédimentaires qui pourront altérer la morphologie des rivières et le transfert de sédiments vers les lacs, ce qui aura des impacts sur les habitats hydrobiologiques dans les systèmes lacustres et fluviatiles. Cet article fait une revue de tels imp...

show abstract

Section: Acidification and Doc In The Uplandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Whitehead

Wilby

Battarbee

et al. 2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

1,026

561

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This level of uncertainty is normally considered acceptable for climate change and land-use change analysis within the hydrological and water quality modelling community, especially in highly uncertain processes like the ones reproduced in this study. It is also worth mentioning that, as pointed out by Cosby et al (1986), uncertain models can still provide extremely useful information for planners and managers, especially for scenario analysis (climate change and land-use change) where the factors of change in the variable of interest are used rather than the absolute values of those variables. Furthermore, the model parametric uncertainty must be considered along with other sources of uncertainty, among which the most important is probably the climate scenarios uncertainty.…”

Section: Impacts On Phytoplankton Concentrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Article (refereed) -postprintBussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Bowes, Michael J.; Read, Daniel S.; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J. 2016. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. AbstractPotential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenarioneutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England).In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

show abstract

“…This technique has been previously applied to MAGIC by Hornberger et al (1986) and 8.4. Monte Carlo Results Cosby et al (1986b) set up the MAGIC model to simulate one of the Loch Dee catchments. This catchment is located in the middle of the region described by cluster 1.…”

Section: Description Of Modeling Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification

Kämäri¹

1990

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ForewordSensitive receptors such as soil and fresh bodies of water are at the end of a long chain of events in the process of regional acidification. This chain begins thousands of kilometers upwind at the emitters of acidifying pollutants. The topics covered in this book are important in the study of regional acidification for two reasons. First, it is important to assess the sensitivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to the deposition of acidifying pollutants. If the sensitivity of an ecosystem is known, then international control strategies can be developed to reduce deposition in the receptor areas of greatest importance. This is an important factor in designing the most effective strategies because of the very high costs of reducing emissions of acidifying pollutants.Second, it is important to be able to predict changes in ecosystems for decades into the future, whether it be an improvement owing to decreases in acidifying emissions or, alas, a further deterioration because control strategies are nonexistent or inadequate. In either event, it is important to be able to judge the results of our actions.Decision makers tend to be mistrustful of models unless they can judge their reliability. The application and testing of the models in Part III of this book cover, therefore, an important facet of model building.This book is an ideal companion to another book that is forthcoming from the Transboundary Air Pollution Project at IIASA: The RAINS Model of Acidification: Science and Strategies in Europe. The latter book is a description of the development and use of the Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model, an integrated assessment model for developing and determining control strategies to reduce regional acidification in Europe. Much of the research described in this book forms part of the foundation of the RAINS model. These two books cover a great deal of the present knowledge about assessing and dealing with a very important environmental problem in Europeregional acidification. R. W. Shaw Leader Transboundary Air Pollution Project Introduction Acidification of the EnvironmentAcidification of the environment is, like most recent environmental problems, a consequence of change in the natural cycles of elements. Some chemical substances that during millions of years leaked from the biosphere are again being emitted to the atmosphere. Owing to these anthropogenic emissions, fluxes of acidifying compounds to the soils and waters have increased manyfold since preindustrial times.The whole problem of air pollution is transboundary in nature; its geographic dimensions are difficult to define. Pollution sources are scattered in many countries, the consequences extending far away. Acidifying sulfur and nitrogen oxides can persist in the air up to a few days, long enough to be transported hundreds or even thousands of kilometers from the place they were emitted. During this transit time, gaseous pollutants undergo a complicated chemical conversion into nitric and sulfuric acids, which ar...

show abstract

A preliminary model of long-term changes in stream acidity in southwestern Scotland

Cited by 48 publications

References 27 publications

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About